Breeder's Cup Day 1 2015

MP40

Member
It's Christmas Eve for us horseplayers as my 2nd favourite day of the year is finally here. We've got 4 BC races to ease us into the weekend with 9 more on tap for tomorrow. As always, I look to first play Euros in the turf races although there are some US horses that I think rate a shot or two this year because some of the Euro contenders have gotten horrible post positions. Here are my thoughts on today's BC races:

Race 6 - Juvenile Turf
Of the Euros, my favourite two horses are #4 Shogun and #13 Cymric. Cymric has beaten Shogun already but John Gosden's horses aren't using Lasix for the first time whereas O'Brien's horses are and that gives an edge to Shogun to improve. If you convert their RPR to Beyer speed figures they tower above the field.

I think #6 Birchwood is a sprinter and will have distance limitations so the mile will be difficult for him. His Tomlinson is poor and his pedigree says sprinter. The fave in the race is #14 Hit It A Bomb. I'm not using this horse at all considering he's going to be very wide throughout as the race essentially starts in the first turn. Europeans generally prefer to race with cover as well. Furthermore, his last race was a big win over a synthetic track in Ireland. He did win his maiden race on turf in a 22 horse field but not a single horse form that race came back to win next out so it was a weak field and he was in a blanket photos with 5 other horses for thew in. I think this horse is a huge underlay and I'm throwing him out.

THe other horses that I rate a chance are #8 Airoforce who has run 2 great races with the last one being at Keeneland so he has experience over the course. He was 4 wide throughout and pulled away late after stalking the pace. Impressive race. I think he should stalk the pace again today and get first run. The other horse from the Bourbon Stakes that I like is #12 Camelot Kitten. This horse got a bad spot and then came from last to grab 2nd. He was charging like a freight train. Having said that, he shortens up in distance today but I think he has a shot at hitting the board.

I'm going to box 4,8,13 in exactas and trifectas as my top selections and use them as my singles in multi-race wagers such as the pick 4 and pick 3's.

More to follow...
 

MP40

Member
Race 7 - Dirt Mile

I think that #3 Liam's Map is a total standout in this race. I'm shocked that his connections didn't elect to go in the Classic because I think he would have had a decent shot in there. At any rate, I think this horse stands above this field and should wire them easily. His Saratoga races were incredible. I like #1 Red Vine and #5 Lea underneath for the exacta and trifecta. I will be singling Liam's Map in the pick 4 and on pick 3's but the price will be too short for a win bet unfortunately.

Race 8 - Juvenile Fillies Turf

This is another full field with 14 runners. I have a Euro single in here in #3 Alice Springs. Her morning line is 6-1 but she's currently the favourite in overseas betting at approximately 5-2. She is by far the best bred horse in this race and I think she'll relish the 8 furlong distance. She gets first time Lasix which should help her improve and she's been running against much tougher. One of the horse she recently raced against is #10 Illuminate but that was at 6 furlongs and I don't think that is her best distance. She only lost that race by 2 lengths so I think she can turn the table on Illuminate who may have some distance limitations as well. Furthermore, her trainer Richard Hannon has a terrible record in BC races.

My only concern with Alice Springs is that this will be her 3rd race in about 35 days so she might be over the top because she's only a 2 year old filly. I'll take my chances and single her.

I would consider using all underneath in an exacta because i think the race is wide open otherwise.

Back with some Distaff thoughts shortly.
 

MP40

Member
Race 9 Distaff

This is a great betting race because on paper it looks very competitive. I think there is going to be a speed duel in here and I don't expect Wedding Toast (likely fave) to get a loose lead which she's had in her latest two romps. Her Beyers are better than these others but they're inflated because she had an easy lead in both races. I think there are 2-3 horses that will push her today and I like the stalkers and even a closer to win this race.

There are a couple of 3 years olds that haven never raced older horses in #1 I'm a Chatterbox and #9 Stellar Wind but they have every right to improve and I'll be using them both. I also like #8 Curalina and #4 Stopcharginamaria who is a distance specialist. #14 Sheer Drama was in excellent form before they shelved her in late August but her latest work tells me that she's going to come back strong. If the pace collapses completely then look for #12 Got Lucky to come charging late.

I'm going to box 6 horses in the trifecta - 1,4,8,9,12,14.

My pick 4 ticket starting in race 6 will be as follows:

46813 / 3 / 35910 / 14891214 - it'll cost $60 for a .50 cent ticket.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy Day 1 of the BC.
 
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