CFL Strategy

Donnie

New member
This is progression strategy that deals with totals. I am going to wager that there will be at least ONE total that goes over this week. Actually, it does not matter if it is over or under that you use, as I will explain.

CFL lends itself to this type of a strategy since, unlike the NFL, the games are farily well spread out over that weekend. So you take the first game of the weekend to go over (or under depending on your preference) for 1 unit. If that is a loser, take the second game to go over (or under if that was what you lost on your first wager) for 2 units. IMPORTANT: You must play the same total that you lost in the first game, either over or under, whichever it was.

If that happens to lose, repeat the strategy for the third game of the weekend, this time for 4 units. Now if you should happen to be 0-3 at this point, not everyone will have the fortitude (foolishness?) to lay 8 units. But that is the way that the strategy works.

So to recap, you need to be willing to face the possibility, unlikely as it may be, of losing 15 units. It is probably wise to set aside a certain amount that you are willing to part with, and divide it into 15 units.
Let's say that you take $165 (factoring in juice). You would lay $11 on the first game, and go from there.

You may be wondering, why would I risk 15 units to win 1 unit? One unit may seem like a small payoff, but when you look at it objectively, that's a 6% return on your investment over the course of a weekend. In a month you've made 24%. You just can't get these kind of return in many other places.

So what's the strategy for this weekend? Last week saw 2 games go over, 1 game go under and one push depending on when you got down. The Sask/Cal game opened at 60 and closed at 58. For simplicity sake, let's call it 2-1-1. With that in mind, a progression bet on at least one under this weekend would seem like the way to go.

Please don't riak your entire bankroll on this strategy. It's meant to provide a conservative, and steady source of income. Statistically speaking you are giving up less than 0.2% of an edge to the house. How so? Consider this,

A game has a 50/50 chance of being either over or under the number. What is the probability that four games will all go one way this weekend?

50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%

What is your expected return on investment when risking 16.5 units to win 1 unit?

1 / 16.5 = 6.06%

So you are giving up less than 0.19% of an edge. 6.25% - 6.06%
 

ScottyB

New member
Just a word of warning, but isn't doubling down after a loss a serious no-no? One 0-4 week would make you lose 15 units and your return that would usually ocurr is 1 unit. But if you went 0-4 every 1 in 13 times you are slowly losing your bankroll. Am I wrong? Anyway, just a thought.
 

yanno

Member
No Scotty, you are not wrong. According to Donnie's own probabilities, there is a 6.25% or 1/16th chance of losing the whole "at risk" amount each week. Statistically speaking, that means you will lose the whole amount on average once in every 16 weeks. And you can just as easily lose it in week 1 or week 5 as in week 16.

Also, you might NOT lose in those 16 weeks. But equally you could also lose twice or more in those weeks. This kind of a system is not going to make you money, on average, over the long run. If you lose once in every 16 weeks it seems to me that you are winning 15 units and losing 16.5 units *on average*.

I guess the merit of Donnie's system is that it puts a cap on how much exposure you have each week. Just my opinion.

Anyway Donnie, good luck with your CFL season!

[This message has been edited by yanno (edited 07-12-2001).]
 
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