NFL Info

icepack6969

Well-known member
1) Kyle Shanahan after covering versus the Seahawks in week 2 this season is now 1-7 ATS all-time as a home divisional favorite.

2) Away dogs in game number four that started their season losing their first two games, then winning their third game, and now are away dogs in week four (no byes) have been 26-13 ATS.....ON Titans

3) In game number four home favorites that lost their first two games, won their third game and now are home favorites in week four (no byes) have been 3-15 ATS......VERSUS Bengals, Panthers

4) Week four/game four home favorites off an away loss have been 37-56-3 ATS, 39.8%, (-1.64).......this moves to 24-44-2 ATS, 35.3% if our play-against team has less than 2 wins....VERSUS Lions, Steelers, Raiders, 49ers.

5) Home dogs off an away dog win playing a team off a home win have been 94-57-3, 62.3%....this is 46-18-1 ATS in the months of September/October combined......Falcons

6) A team in a sequence of home dog win, away loss and now home favorite has been 41-68-3, 37.6%....VERSUS Lions

7) Since 2014, in weeks before week 11, teams off a home loss that are now an away dog have been 125-90-7, 58.1%,...this becomes 83-43-4, 65.4% if their calculated line is greater than the Vegas line.....ON Seahawks, Jets, Cardinals


8) For you totals guys.....week four/game number four home teams in non-divisional games that have gone UNDER their first three games have gone 22-11 OVER.....Bengals, Packers, Bucs OVER

9) Week 3/4 away dogs of <=7 that won only one or two divisional games the prior season since 2002 (when every team started playing 6 divisional games exact per season)....62-36-2 ATS, 63.3%......Commanders, Bears, Jaguars, Broncos.....
This moves to 42-21-1 ATS, 37-24-1 o/u in non-divisional games....Bears, Jaguars
20-15 ATS, 21-14 o/u in divisional games....Commanders, Broncos

10) A week four/game number four home favorite with one win on the season thus far off an away game....13-25 ATS,....VERSUS Bengals, Lions, Steelers, 49ers, (Cowboys qualify also if they lose to the Giants on MNF)


This is the same as #10, only worded differently, and the results when querying this came out with a greater number of results



11) A week four away dog, whose present opponent has one win on the season, off an away game....50-25 ATS....Dolphins, Seahawks, Rams, Jets.....

a) if our away dog is off a win this moves to 23-9 ATS.....Rams, Dolphins

b) if our away dog has a line less than 7......30-12 ATS....Rams, Dolphins, Seahawks, Jets

c) if our away dog with a line that is less than 7 and has a calculated line greater than the Vegas line this moves to 10-1 ATS....Rams, Seahawks, Jets

Plays so far with public betting consensus percentage

1) Dolphins +3....64%...this HUGE public percentage lessens the value on the Dolphins....the Steelers were an indicated play last TNF with a public consensus on them and they failed miserably....still, there is a very strong anti-Bengal angle in this game.

2) Cardinals +1'...71%....public also big on Arizona....a 22-2 ATS angle favors the Cardinals and Murray has historically performed very well on the road, so we'll see.

3) Seahawks +6...31%....that's better, happier when the public hates an away dog, high money percentage of the Lions as well.....personalities like Pete Carroll always perform better when things have gone badly the previous game or two.

4) Jets +3'..........48%....I'm surprised that the Jets betting public percentage is this high, respected money is solidly on the Jets.

5) Falcons +3......41%....game has been bet down to 1', despite the majority of bettors on the Browns the money percentage is very solidly on the Falcons signaling respected money on Atlanta.



Other leans.....Commanders...Commanders line is totally out of whack, as this line should be around 6 points...this usually is a sign that the bookmaker is trying to attract action on the opposite side (to Dallas). Most commonly we want to do the opposite of what Vegas is enticing us to do. In the first eleven weeks of the season in the NFL going against the "value" or the "best deal" is the better strategy and you will make money 55-60% of the time in implementing that plan of attack.. Value handicapping is a losing strategy in the NFL that works well in other sports, which is why the general view of smart/sharp bettors that do excellent in other sports that the NFL is the toughest sport to handicap. If the line for Washington moves to above three we'll be on he Commanders.

Going against the consenus in betting on dogs, specifically away dogs early season and then home dogs after the midpoint of the season as a stand-alone strategy has done very well in recent NFL seasons.


12) Home favorites in September/October that have had a three game sequence of home win, away loss by 4 or less points, now home favorites have gone 22-48 ATS if the line is less than -7......VERSUS Lions, 49ers....



a) looking deeper at this game, when our home favorite has one less win than their present opponent they have been 6-3 ATS, the only subset that does not favor going against the home favorite, so I will not play on the 49ers' opponent, the Rams

b) when the two teams have the same number of wins the home favorite has been 2-20 ATS......VERSUS Lions

We all know that handicapping is about applying what we think is useful information and disregarding what we think is not. Fortyniners have played the Rams tough winning two out of three last season and then losing, but covering in the NFC Championship game in January last year. Revenge is perhaps the greatest motivator in sports....I am playing that game UNDER and am obviously hoping the quarterbacks don't create a ton of points for their opposition. Prime time UNDERs have dominated recently,....we'll expect that to continue on MNF.


13) Matt Rhule is 5-13 ATS at home in his NFL career. Kliff Kingsbury is 19-8 ATS on the road in his NFL career.

To reference how coaches have performed in their NFL careers, go to killersports, type in "coach" in the query box in the NFL section and hit the "SDQL!" button.


4) Home favorites in week four that started the season off with three straight failures to cover the point spread have been 9-15-1 ATS, however they've been 18-7 straight up......VERSUS Raiders



If this is a divisional matchup they've been 2-8-1 ATS (-0.14) and 9-2 straight up (+5.27), with an average line of -5.4 and an average score of 24.4-19.1

What that tells me is the past history here says that we should expect a close game.





Commie/Cowboy line has not moved, which gives me an uneasy feeling....do I really want to put money down on Carson Wentz with his offensive line versus the front of the Cowboys?

The Commanders are in very, very good situation and Dallas of course is off two straight dog wins with a guy they could have paid 35 million or so less than their main guy to quarterback their team.


Ok, let's do some far out angles, with the idea that time is not linear. I am using teamrankings' lookahead lines.

14) A favorite of 3 or more points after week 3 who will be greater than a six point dog their next game....126-239-12 ATS, 34.5%, 5-16 ATS in week four.....VERSUS Giants (lookahead line is +7), Steelers (+13.5), Cowboys (+6.5).....Raiders just miss out

15) A dog of 3 or more points after week 3 who will be more than a 6 point favorite the following game...250-173-17, 59.1%, 20-10 ATS in week four......Jaguars are scheduled to be 7 point favorites next week at home versus the Texans

16) A home favorite who will be an underdog their next two games....377-603-25, 38.5%, 20-36-1 ATS in week four,.....VERSUS Giants, Lions, Steelers, Panthers

17) An away dog that will be favored their next two games.....624-450-27, 58.1%, 35-27-1 ATS in week four....Dolphins, Rams

18) An underdog who have a next game line that is stronger than their present opponent's next week line.....1506-1011-74, 59.8%.....Dolphins, Titans, Bears, Jets, Jaguars, Commanders, Broncos, Rams, Bucs
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
18) A home favorite, week four whose defense is allowing at least 30 yards more rushing yards per game than their offense is generating.....28-44 ATS....VERSUS Steelers

19) A week four away team that is gaining 30 or more yards per game on the ground than they are allowing...54-75 ATS

a) as away dogs 28-38 ATS....VERSUS Jaguars, Broncos

b) as away favorites 24-37-2 ATS....VERSUS Browns, Bills

This backs my theory that teams win with defense and running attacks at home and win with quarterbacks and throwing the ball on the road.

20) A team with at least a 30 yard per game total net yards advantage....example....if team A is gaining 400 yards/game and allowing 300/game, they have a net +100 yards/game average.....if their present opponent team B is gaining 350/game and allowing 350/game team B's net total yards is 0....team A would have a 100 yards per game net advantage over team B......

a) home favorites with >30 yards/game net total yardage advantage (we exclude an unbeaten team versus a winless team)...69-93-3 ATS, 42.6% (-1.41)....VERSUS Bengals, Lions, Colts, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, 49ers

b) away favorites with a >30 yards/game net total yards advantage (we exclude an unbeaten team playing a winless team)....40-58-2 ATS, 40.8% (-2.42)......VERSUS Browns, Bills, Chargers (Chiefs, though it is iooking likely that they will be an away dog).

21) A week four home dog with at least a 1 yard per pass attempt advantage over their opponent 10-3-1 ATS, 10-4 straight up (+7.68).....Falcons

22) An week four away team allowing less than 16 points/game.......38-56-5 ATS

a) as away favorites 17-27-3 ATS.....VERSUS Bills

b) as away dogs......21-29-2 ATS.....VERSUS Jaguars, Broncos

23) A week four away favorite that averages >30 rushing attempts/game 23-33 ATS........ VERSUS Browns

24) A week four favorite that averages five more rushing attempts per game than their present opponent as long as they don't have more than 1 win than their opponent...36-51 ATS....VERSUS Bengals, Browns, 49ers, Lions
 

icepack6969

Well-known member
Clev vs Atl

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


Chargers vs Texans
Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.


Titans vs Colts
Favorite is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.



Wash vs Dallas
Commanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Dallas.
Commanders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Dallas.


Seattle vs Detroit
Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.


Bears vs Giants
Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.



Bills vs Ravens
Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Baltimore.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


Jets vs Pitt
Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.


Pats vs Pack
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.



Ariz vs Carolina
Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Carolina.
Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.


Chiefs vs Bucs
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


Broncos vs Raiders
Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Las Vegas.

Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Home team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Las Vegas.


Rams vs 49ers
Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in San Francisco.
Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in San Francisco.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
 
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