Soccer question for Matthias_W (Serie B)

T

The Radster

New member
Hi Matthias,

I did a little experiment today with all 7 of 10 Serie B games, and made up all 2 game parlays (combos), of Under 2.5.

For 7 games choose 2, this is 21 parlays of 2 games each.

Looks like 5 of the games came in under, so this would mean 10 winning tickets of the 21.

Not at home, now, but I believe this is enough for a small profit of around 14%.

If I'd taken all 10 games I would have done even better as 8 were under 2.5.

Seems to me Under 2.5 in Serie B could be a profitable venture.

What do you think?

thanks
 
V

Vone

Banned
not sure if I can butt in here but........

H*LL YEAH!!!!!


and while your at it you might want to consider 1st Division France as well.

about once a month or so these two leagues will throw a hiccup at ya on weekend and score goals which can cause national celebrations. but for the most part...... these two leagues are historically UNDER places.

definitely stick with your plan buddy.

dont ask me why I dont play them ........ I really dont want to get into that. LOL the other soccer guys will tell ya tho' :(
 
T

The Radster

New member
thanks Vone

thanks Vone, sure, should have titled the thread "Matthias or any other soccer players".

Appreciate the input on France Div 1.

The bottom line on the little rotation today was actually much better than 14%, it was 26% profit.

I could have increased this by either getting all 10, choose any 2, or else, perhaps play all triples instead.

Can't go too nuts with this, because it can get expensive with this many tickets, but simply lowering the bet size per ticket fixes it.

Of course could always go for the singletons, but the payouts on these today anyway were around -180'ish.

Thanks again Vone.
 
H

Hawk2

New member
Vone play an under? Nope, I don't see it happening!

Good luck with the plan, Radster. Hope all's well.
 
B

BigEd

New member
There are 10 games each round in Serie B. Here are the OVER - UNDER numbers for each round so far this season:

Round 1: 2-8 (2 overs - 8 unders)
Round 2: 2-8 (that was today's round - makeup)
Round 3: 8-2
Round 4: 3-7
Round 5: 3-7
Round 6: 2-8
Round 7: 4-6
Round 8: 3-7
Round 9: 4-6
Round 10: 3-7
Round 11: 4-6
Round 12: 2-8
Round 13: 6-4
Round 14: 1-9
Round 15: 6-4
Round 16: 8-2
Round 17: 8-2

When they hiccup, they hiccup good. But still looks like an overall winning proposition.

BigEd
 
M

Matthias_W

Active member
Radster,

I have been really making some coin with the Under in Serie B this season. What amazes me is that you still get fairly good prices, too. It seems that the bookies react more promptly to leagues that hit the Over strongly (Belgium for instance).

I will post a little system with the next round of games that improves the percentage of Unders even further. I was cold catched by the fact that the Monday games were all played in the afternoon so no time to do the O/U thing there.

CU!

PS:
My suscipion is that Vone plays them secretly and has made a fortune in the meantime .... :D :D
 
V

Vone

Banned
gawd Matthias...... I wish I was a 'CLOSET' under player. like that little boy whom steals grammas cookies and hides under the table :D of course I'll play an occasional under in soccer just to VERIFY to myself whether or not I am indeed "on a roll".

LOL

think about it for a sec.... I'll go on a 18-5 run and start asking myself "am I on a roll or not??........ lets try an 'under' Vone"

of course it misses. <cr*p>

unders also serve another purpose for me and protects my head from getting too large by thinking I cannot miss a thing today. and prevents me from doubling down from sheer invincibility. you ever have those thoughts of increasing your wager cuz you think ur psychic? me??? I'll just play an under. it puts those thoughts away quickly.

it helps bring me back down from the heavens :D

enough rambling..... I got carried away here.
 
V

Vone

Banned
here's some more stuff for ya Radster. in the French League thru midway in the season (most teams have played 20 games thus far but it varies between 18-20). there are 20 teams in this league, just FYI:

- only 1 team (Lyon) AVERAGES a TOTAL GF/GA of over 3 goals per game---and just barely at that with 61 (36/25) thru 20 games.

- after that, only 4 teams average over 2.5 goals (a total of 50 GF+GA); Guingamp, Monaco, PSG, & Strasborg.

- 8 teams average LESS than 2 goals per game. with the rest of them falling somewhere between 2.1 - 2.5 per game.

what does this all mean? probably not much to some as these are only the AVERAGES. for a normal weekend there are 10 games being played and 3 times thus far has the under went 8-2 for the day, and exactly ONCE has the 'over' come in more than the unders.

118-80 under 2.5 this year; comes out to 59.5% roughly. one of the best in Europe, CONSISTENTLY in the top 3 yearly. I dont have the other leagues readily available but I am quite certain Serie 'B' in Italy is parallel to this.
 
M

Matthias_W

Active member
The "Serie B Under System" is pretty simple to apply but still very effective.

Overall the Under is 104-66 this season in Serie B.

You can split that figure into two groups which are (a) games where the home team is -0.5 goals on the Asian Handicap or an even bigger favourite and (b) all other games:

(a) 57-25 69.5%
(b) 47-41 53.4%

Now with Under odds of around 1.70 on average one would have made about +15.00 units this season playing the a-category.

BigEd is right though that when the hicups come they come big ... the two rounds before Christmas produced a 3-7 record for this system.
 
B

BigEd

New member
In France, you can further increase your odds by looking at specific teams and how they perform in regards to O/U:

Sochaux 4-16
Lens 5-15
Marseille 7-13
Auxerre 7-12
Troyes 7-13
Montpellier 7-12
LeHavre 7-13
Nice 8-12
Nantes 8-12
Bordeaux 8-12
Bastia 8-12
Rennes 8-12
Ajaccio 8-12
PSG 9-11
Sedan 9-11
Monaco 10-10
Lille 10-10
Strasbourg 10-10
Guingamp 11-9
Lyon 11-9

Sochaux are scoring on the average 1.15 gpg, while allowing 0.70 gpg.

Lens score 0.90 gpg and allow 0.95 gpg

6 teams score on the average under 1.00 goal per game: Lens, Rennes, LeHavre, Ajaccio, Troyes, Montpellier.

6 teams allow under 1.00 goal per game: Lens, Marseille, Nice, Sochaux, Auxerre, Bordeaux.

BigEd
 
T

The Radster

New member
Thankyou guys once again, some very useful information there, so I don't go blindly off and play every Under in sight!

Much appreciate your insights.
 
V

Vone

Banned
are we good or what?? :D


yeah.... thanks BigEd for that breakdown further I didnt have it broken down this far for this league as I pretty much avoid it altogether but when someone is interested in playing Unders these are the first two leagues which pop in my mind.

the thing with France Radster is that most of the books ALSO know this (suprise, suprise). and one will have to eat a lot of chalk ----- in the -140 to -160 range ---- so it might not be as feasible as Italy 'B' in which Matthias mentioned.

GL to you
 
T

The Radster

New member
thanks BigEd so in summary, play the soccer Unders in the following 3 situations:

a) Italy Serie B (especially home team -0.5 asian handicap games)

b) France Div 1 (especially Sochaux 4-16
Lens 5-15
Marseille 7-13
Auxerre 7-12
Troyes 7-13
Montpellier 7-12
LeHavre 7-13)

c) possibly Spain Div 2 (....check the numbers first at http://futbol.sportec.com/portaldef...esultados/liga/2division/resultados.asp?jor=1
)

great input here fellas, thanks.
 
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