This Week in the CFL #11 of 20

[tinman]

1st Half Performance Report Card time:

Calgary 2-7: (F) They aren't called F-Troop for nothing. Only player
aquisitions like John Grace, Tommy Jones and Nick Lewis have prevented them from absorbing an F-. Matt Dunnigan has worked his tail off, but cannot do it all by himself. His playcalling or lack there-of has cost them two losses. I like the guy based upon his previous reputation, but give him some help! Ownership is MIA. The running game is extinct. Calgary have a brutal schedule in the second half and just do not have the horses.

Winnipeg 3-6 (D-) Despite looking solid on paper, the Bombers started the season in turmoil. To me; it looks now like the players quit on Dave Ritchie. The page has turned as he has moved on, but management now realizes they need to make some personel changes, especially on defense. All is not lost; they could still make the playoffs in the weak west division.....but time is running out quickly. Winnipeg play Montreal, Saskatchewan A/H, Toronto, Montreal and BC in their next six games. That will be a tough runway to hoe.

Saskatchewan 4-6 (D) D for Dung. Yeah injuries .... blah, blah blah! The Saskatchewan fans are being duped by this dogmatic regime. The Riders are being debunked as contenders as I type despite heading into their bye-week. When have they and when will they play 60 minutes? Bottom line: They are easy roadkill!

Ottawa 4-5 (D) Here is another example of an organization ready to take the next step, but yet; has mysteriously underachieved. If they don't start protecting their quarterbacks soon, they won't have any. Maybe it's time to trade some of the Canadian surplus talent for some Import offensive linemen. Joe Paopao is a good coach and deserves better. Expect some changes down the stretch as Ottawa would love to play in the Grey Cup that they are hosting in 2004.

Edmonton 4-5 (C-) They won the GC in 2003. This is 2004. Get over it! Some player defections and reoccurring injuries have prevented them from achieving a better record. Depth has been a problem in places. They are capable of winning the division but will have to earn it after a sporadic first half. Edmonton can and will aquire the re$ource$ they need to make the playoffs.

Hamilton 4-5 (C+) This team was 1-17 in 2003. Paul Obaldiston and Danny McManus were over the hill in everyones eyes including mine. GM Ron Lancaster banished his offensive coordinator son R.D. to Winnipeg. They were orphan$ of the league. Nice turn around guys ...wherever you wind up when the season ends! Oskeeweewee! Rock On!

Toronto 6-3 (B+) HC Mike Clemons has steered his team through the turbulent CFL waters despite all of the obstacles they have encountered. IMO ... His effervescent optimism has buoyed the good ship Argo this season. That will have to continue until Damon Allen re-emerges from sickbay. The defense is topnotch.
The offense should embrace this opportunity to improve as they look forward to battling Montreal for the east division title. I like their chances to attain second place in the east.

BC 6-3 (A-) HC Wally Buono and the entire front office of the BC Lions football club should be commended for putting together such a fine product in such a short time. However ... BC are notorious for finishing poorly. If the staff can keep things interesting for the players, and the team remains relatively healthy, they should win the west division. Saskatchewan always plays them tough and Edmonton will give them a run.

Montreal 8-1 (A) Only the lack of a proven back-up quarterback and their brash attitude can hurt this team. They have been on a mission all season and would love nothing more than to win the Grey Cup in their back yard. (Ottawa)

Thursday Aug. 26th Montreal -8 @ Winnipeg O/U 54
Friday Aug. 27th Calgary @ Hamilton -2 O/U 60
Friday Aug. 27th Toronto @ BC -5 O/U 50
Saturday Aug. 28th Ottawa @ Edmonton -7 O/U 55

***Thanks to Phil for all of his help with the injury reports. That will be a huge help to all of us down the stretch!

 

[tinman]

Montreal @ Winnipeg "The Spys Who Shagged Me"

Looking at the lopsided nature of this contest on the statistical ledger, one would expect the Bombers to be whistling a tune similar to that after the contest. In actuality, the Bombers are 6-3-1 ats in the last ten contests wih the Als.

At home in the land of the blue endzones, the Bombers have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 contests between the two ... this century ... and were 3-2-1 straight up. It even seems like a century since the night of the long knives.

Remember that ... Winnipeg was in the east division in 2001/2002. Given the unbalanced schedule and playoff games, they played Montreal at home six times in three years.

Jim Daley has inherited a team that barely resembles the previous team when you look at the win loss records of previous years. That is the bad news. The good news is that ....i'll think of something......

Oh yeah ... they only lost to the Argo's 14-6 in week ten .... so their supposedly anemic defence gave up a mere 28 points in two contests. Two thumbs up!

One has to take solace where one can find it.

J.D. stripped the team down to the basics in an effort to put some fun back into the game. The team responded with two respectable performances with only four days rest in between.

Winnipeg will have had eight days rest for this contest .... but Moreal will have had 13 which happens to be the number of Al's quarterback Anthony Calvillo.

In order to stay reasonably close in this contest, the Bombers will have to find a way to disrupt A.C.'s timing. Winnipeg has only sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times. That has contributed to Winnipeg giving up a league leading average of 10.1 yards per pass and a pass completion percentage of 58.4%.

If passing proves difficult for Montreal, they have shown they can run when they want to averaging over 100 yards per game, going against a 'Peg defence that gives up 110 ypg.

My point is ....Winnipeg will have to come up with a huge defensive effort to stop the Alouette offensive juggernaut ... and the Al's defense aint too shabby either!

Winnipeg will have to play mistake free football on offense and that will likely not be enough anyways as their main weapon RB Charles Roberts will be up against a defense that gives up a mere 58 yards per game on average because they usually have the lead in every game by half-time.

Winnipeg hosts Saskatchewan B/B H/H after this game and those contests will be very important in their quest for a playoff position.

Montreal will be entering the part of their schedule where they shift into "autopilot" while driving "The Don" insane ... if that is even possible. This is the spot where they have been vunerable.

Smile Don.

You don't have to worry about seeing his halftime interviews anymore. He is frustrated with the quality of the questions while the media is equally frustrated with the quality of his answers.

Ask a stupid question ... get a stupid answer.

Where was I?

Fading Montreal ..... let's just say that they have a tendency to become complacent when leading their division and owning all of the tie breakers. Complacency breeds contempt and you don't want "The Don" judging you.

Last year, Montreal made some hasty personel decisions that IMO ... cost them the Grey Cup game. It will be interesting to watch their performances and subsequent management reactions as the season progresses.

I suppose the line could reach double digits here ... double digit faves on the road are always a risky proposition.

 

[Loco D]

why do you have Hamilton at just -2, Tin... do they have injuries?

 

[lasvegasles]

Tin...Loco

Great report card TinCan't argue with much there at all!

Loco...assuming the line will be down after the way Calgary
played BC tough. Cats @ home But still not in BC's class.

 

[tinman]

Calgary 2-7 @ Hamilton 4-5 "Statistical Nightmare"

Einstein formulated the theory of relativity.

It does not apply here.

Frank Zappa would have had a hard time relating.

Here's the pudding:

In 2002, 2003, 2004, Hamilton has a record of 8 wins and 13 losses in their home games. They won their first 6 games in 2002.
That translates into two wins and 13 losses in their last 15 games at Never-Wynne Stadium.

In 2002, 2003, 2004, Calgary has won a record of 4 wins and 19 losses on the road.

Sooo ....who do youse guys like?

oneelephant
twoelephants
threeelephants
fourelephants
fiveelephants

....times up!

What does either team have to do to win?

Hamilton won a game last week aaaand they only had one TURNOVER! Splendid! They also had a running game.

Calgary remains last in the league in time of posession with an average of 28 minutes. Their lack of a running game (45ypg) has put their defense back on the field far too often, and they can't seal the deal.

Their defense is really not that bad.

What will happen?

Calgary spotted Hamilton 25 points in week three, made a furious rally to knot the game each at 31 after 3 quarters but lost 41-34 in a game that featured 783 passing yards and 68 rushing yards.

Punt and kick returns will play a big part in this game.

I will agree that Hamilton should be favored and should win, but I am not sure they can cover a 7 point spread.

Aaaaand .... the game isn't played on my keyboard or in my head.




Here is the second of nine team player previews:

Hamilton:

#5 WR Craig Yeast ... Kentucky
Yeast is invaluable as their primary deep threat and a dynomite kick returner. He plays tough and will make the catch in the middle when called upon. He has tremendous speed.

#9 Slotback Archie Amerson ... N. Arizona
Archie is their sparkplug and has a motor that does not stop. He is very quick off of the line and shines brightest when the other team has to cover him with a linebacker. He is a gamer and is sometimes relied on too much as Danny Mac uses him as a relief valve. It amazes me how much punnishment he can take with his small frame.

#14 QB Danny McManus ... Florida State
DannyMac has paid his dues over and over in the CFL, winning the CFL's holy grail twice and absorbing tremendous punnishment in the process as their fearless leader. He is one of the few CFL pocket passers. His quick release has kept him at the top of the statistical page.

#32 RB Troy Davis ... Iowa State
Troy is the toughest pound for pound rusher in the CFL. He hits the hole in a flurry and is tough to tackle unless you cut his legs from under him. He has become a true journeyman as he can catch the ball out of the backfield and blocks well.

#42 Safety Rob Hitchcock ... Weber State
Speaking of hitting ... this 10 year veteran has a hilite real all of his own and has been a perenial allstar in the CFL. He is also their defensive leader.

#49 D End Tim Cheatwood ... Ohio State
#53 D End Joe Montford ... South Carolina State
These two cats are the bookends of the defensive line and go together like peanut butter and jelly, creating havoc both against the run and rushing the opposing QB's off of their respective ends. Montford is a ten year veteran and a perenial allstar.

#68 O Lineman Dave Hack ... Maryland
Dave is a solid journeyman lineman who is rock steady and can play several positions on the O-line. He is an unselfish leader and a team player.

 

[tinman]

Sorry Loco .....

See my humble preview on these two ...I probably can't pick the winner, but if the line is -5 to -7 Ticats, I think I would have to lean to Calgary ats with Hammy's dismal SU home record.

 

[tinman]

Toronto 6-3 @ BC 6-3 "To pass or not to pass"

Food for thought:

Teams playing before their bye-week have a record of 3-6 straight up. BC has the bye week next week.

BC has a record of 2-5 straight up against Toronto in their last 7 games at home and an has an ats record of 1-5-1.

***The last 7 games between these two teams at BC Place has gone over the posted total, with the total never more than 52.5.***

On offense ... BC is a pass first team that was developing their running game before RB Antonio Warren was injured while Toronto have been reluctant to pound surgically repaired RB John Avery and have now lost QB Damon Allen in the process.

On defense ...BC gives up 75 yards per game on average while Toronto gives up 112. While some of this can be contributed to BC having the lead in several games, Toronto truly has problems defending the run.

Even if Antonio is healthy, I'm not sure BC will risk him, but his replacements might be advised by HC Wally Buono to attempt the run. The Lions have a fair weather schedule remaining with only one trip left on the prairies. IMO ... Antonio Warren should sit.

The BC worry now is that Casey Printers will go down before Dave Dickenson gets healthy. Toronto is notorious as a physical, if not dirty defensive team. Casey Printers is gutting it out but is really hurting and could use the bye week. A running game would help preserve his wounded carcass.

I expect this game to be over-hyped.

Both teams are in a good place in the standings and I just don't see either going the extra mile for a win.

BC looks to have the advantage because of Toronto's quarterback situation and the time-zone differential. The turf in BC place has a very hard surface underneath that contributes to injuries and the Dome itself is not air conditioned. The ventilation has to work to keep the roof inflated, but the building is often described as humid and stuffy, leaving players with cramps and dehydration on hot game days. The heat of the fans alone can make the place warm in the second half.

If Antonio Warren plays, I will be tempted to take the under if the line is over 55.

Good luck with whatever you play!

I'll just watch this one.

 

[tinman]

Ottawa 4-5 @ Edmonton 4-5 "Revenge for .500"

Ottawa are 2-9 straight up against the west division after being reincarnated as the Renegades in 2002.

This is also a revenge game for Edmonton.

Ottawa won at home in week #3 44-15 blowing open a close contest with 28 second half points against the then porous Edmonton secondary.

Edmonton has improved it's situation in the backfield and it showed in week #10 against the wannabe combine pilots come pedestrian Saskatchewan Roughriders.

They are 5-0 su and ats in their last 5 contests at home against the east division teams.

Edmonton is also 16-4 su and 14-5-1 ats at home in its last 20 contests. Montreal have won 3 of those contests su and ats.

Ottawa hosts Montreal on the Labor Day weekend and this is a division sandwich game to boot.

At first glance ... tough spot for the 'Gades and their maligned defensive secondary.

With Moreal on deck, IMO ... they are frozen dinner.

 

[tinman]

Thanks Les!

Good luck this week!

I'm can't say i'm looking forward to getting talked to like a four year old in the coming two weeks by all of you Manimobsters! LOL!

It should be fun .....cya later LVL!

 

[Phil Margonis]

I love your report card tinman, very interesting stuff. Haven't read yor game previews yet because like I told you once I save those for game days.

Thanks for your hard work.

 

[a hockey fan]

tinman...

I think that the D you gave the Bombers was too kind, it should have been an F based on the first half of the season, and with Montreal next it looks like another loss.

 

[Loco D]

these just came out... week 11 opening lines from Olympic

Mtl @ Wpg +8, 47½
Cgy @ Ham -3½, 60½
Tor @ BC -5, 47
Ott @ Edm -8, 57

 

[Loco D]

took about 5 minutes for the Ham line to get up to -4½.. LOL... I was thinking -4 before the lines came out... I probably won't play either team

 

[Loco D]

What I'm thinking right now...

1* Wpg
2* Wpg u
4* BC -- depends on injuries
1* BC u
2* Ott -- depends on Joseph's health

 

[tinman]

Hey guys ...

AHF ... funny but I thought I was too kind to the Riders!

Thanks Phil .... I don't know if there is any value in the report card but that's my 2 cents.

Loco D .... LOL! too funny ... you have 'em cornered! Good call!

I can't believe the total in the BC game .... Wow!

...and thanks for posting the early line .... now we can monitor that too.


...talk to ya soon!..............G.

 

[Loco D]

It's kinda low I guess... but when you consider the following, it's not...

Toronto:
without starting QB
Avery's game again... more clock ticking
very good D... kept games low-scoring all year

BC:
their game totalled just 36 last week (not including OT)
Casey nicked up? (I don't know... I didn't get a chance to watch the game)
Antonio Warren out or nicked up

Basically, both teams lack balance on offence right now, and both D's are pretty tough

Oh, boy... I hope Casey is healthy or out (Spergeon is capable)... I can't wait to fade Bishop after getting that win last week (I know, I know.. I bet on him last week, but that was different )

 

[Phil Margonis]

Heads- Up

Winnipeg is 1-19 SU the last 20 times they've been an underdog of 8+ points.

More on this game when my thread comes out. I'm looking to parlay Montreal ML with lots of stuff and take my chances.

 

[Phil Margonis]

Oh yeah,

anyone know what the status of Casey Printers is? Is he starting or not?

Thanks

 

[Jimmy Fingers]

tin

thanks for the report cards Tin

u forgot one

Tinman (A+)
outstanding work each week, very informative info and funny writes up's week in and week out. Always a first stop for me to read in capping the weeks games

I would also like to thank Phil and Loco for always adding to this great thread. so I will give you guys A's as well

BOL this week guys
Fingers

 

[Phil Margonis]

Thursday Injuries...

WPG...

WPG ADD IMP Stephen FISHER (DB) North Carolina
WPG ADD FROM INACTIVE IMP Milt STEGALL (SB) Miami of Ohio
WPG EXT ON INACTIVE IMP Jayson BRAY (DB) Auburn
WPG EXT ON INACTIVE IMP Eric CARTER (CB) Knoxville College
WPG TFR TO INACTIVE IMP Robert GORDON (WR) Nebraska Omaha
WPG TFR TO INACTIVE IMP Terry RAY (LB) Oklahoma
PRACTICE ROSTER 25-Aug-04
WPG REM SGD IMP Stephen FISHER (DB) North Carolina

MTL...

MTL ADD FROM INACTIVE IMP Duane BUTLER (DB) Illinois State
MTL ADD FROM INACTIVE NIP Sylvain GIRARD (WR) Concordia
MTL ADD FROM INACTIVE NIP Bruno HEPPELL (FB) Western Michigan
MTL ADD FROM INACTIVE IMP Ezra LANDRY (WR) Southern
MTL ADD FROM INACTIVE IMP Khari SAMUEL (LB) Massachusetts
MTL DEL IMP Tim GILLIGAN (WR) Boise State
MTL DEL IMP Jonas LEWIS (RB) San Diego State
MTL EXT ON INACTIVE NIP Aaron FIACCONI (OT) Mansfield
MTL EXT ON INACTIVE IMP Neal FORT (T) Brigham Young
MTL EXT ON INACTIVE NIP Dave STALA (SB) Saint Mary's
MTL EXT ON INACTIVE IMP Kerry WATKINS (WR) Georgia Tech
MTL TFR TO INACTIVE NIP Philippe GIRARD (DE) Mount Allison
MTL TFR TO INACTIVE IMP D.J. JOHNSON (DB) Iowa
MTL TFR TO INACTIVE NIP Brian NUGENT (WR) York
PRACTICE ROSTER 25-Aug-04
MTL ADD IMP Tim GILLIGAN (WR) Boise State
MTL ADD IMP Jonas LEWIS (RB) San Diego State