This Week in the CFL #14 of 20

tinman

Active member
Meanwhile .... back at the ranch, Matthew was heard to utter, I'm thinkin' you boy's owe us one ... the Navy crew are busy preparing to visit the resurgent Airforce and the Schmoes have a heavy date out in Lotusland with the Leos.

For the Rider's .... well, payback is a bitch!

Estimated lines:

Fri. Sept. 17th: Ottawa (4-8) @ Calgary (2-10) pickem O/U 54
Sat. Sept. 18th Toronto (6-4-1) -2.5 @ Winnipeg (5-7) O/U 52
Sat. Sept. 18th Edmonton (7-5) @ BC (8-3) -4 O/U 60
Sun. Sept 19th Sask. (4-8) @ Hamilton (5-6-1) -5 O/U 51

Some Trends:

Ottawa/Calgary have slid under the total in four of their five contests. The only game in the series that went over was in week #7 this year where the teams splurged for 32 points in the fourth quarter. Ottawa won that game 31-30 as the Stamps snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Toronto have lost 6 of their last 7 games in Winnipeg. So why do I have them as a favorite here, you ask?

Edmonton have won the game outright the last two times they visited BC Place. This is the rubber match in 2004 and the game of week #14 in the CFL.

Hamilton have defeated the 'Ridden the last six times they have hosted them and this is a revenge game. The last five contests between these two in Hamilton have resulted in overs.




Ottawa @ Calgary

Calgary DL Joe Fleming provides the spark for his team; although it wasn't enough in week thirteen to save the herd.

Mad Cow Disease has set in.

Fleming was on a mission to prevent his teams name from being installed in the record books as the victim of Mike Pringles CFL rushing record. As it turned out, Pringle missed the record by two yards and BC will have to throw him a party, but I'll get to that later.

Bottom line: Calgary lost 44-12 ... and that score flattered them.

Incumbent record holder, George Reed is still muttering after standing on the chilly Commy Stadium sideline.

BTW ... Nice toque Matthew ... what are ya going to do when it really gets cold?

Ottawa proved a gracious host in week #13 as they fed themselves to the Lions for lunch. The good news is .... there isn't a CFL team named the Vultures coming into town in week 14.

In the week #7 matchup between these two, Tommy Jones and Darnell Kennedy were their teams respective starters. Calgary squandered a 29-14 lead with just over eight minutes remaining in gut wrenching fashion.

Calgary continue to lead the league in the least rushing yardage category. That glaring weakness doesn't seem to phase HC MD. He has that get tough or die attitude, while his quarterbacks are taking a beating. It won't be long now.

In this contest, we could see Crandell and Joseph at QB.

In defense of the Calgary defense, 28 of 44 points relinquished in the Edmonton game were the direct result of offensive or special team mistakes. The defense rests.

Euthanasia is the remedy for the offense.

Ottawa share the same feelings about their defense.

This might be a good chance to take a road dog if the occaision arises .... or on second thought ... just take the dog for a walk!

Come to think of it, this Friday night might be a great opportunity for you CFL fans to take your significant other/football widow to a chick flick and earn some bonus brownie points for next Sunday!

I'll just watch this one while consuming copious amounts of my favorite beverage!
 
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tinman

Active member
Toronto @ Winnipeg

Answer to why I have Toronto as a favorite:

A: After the Tronna/Hamilton game, I am a sucker for punnishment.
B. After the Winnipeg/Sask. game, I don't trust the Bombers.
C. Injuries to 'Peg.
D. All of the above.

At this time, I have to take my hat off to the Man after suffering some horrendous ATS and O/U bad beats in recent weeks. Yikes!

I'll also concede that Winnipeg are the "Official Central Time Zone Champs" of the CFL. Troy Westwood is my nominee to accept the winners spoils.

He can kindly keep/shove the Banjo Bowl Trophy ... pick one.

Toronto had the bye in week #13 and needed it after playing a very physical game in Hamilton on Labour Day. This will be their third of four consecutive road games, separated by the bye in
week #13.

Winnipeg; as you know by now, took wheatfield soul possesion of third place in the West division after holding off a fiesty Rider team in week #13 by a score of 27-24. In the process, they incurred injuries to P/K return specialist and WR Keith Stokes, Safety Jeff Drover and CB Raheem Covigton. Only the latter returned to play in the game. The loss of Stokes will hurt the worst, as Winnipeg need his special teams play to provide field position. Drover was playing well in the mish-mash defense after converting from reciever because of injuries to other Winnipeg defenders.

Winnipeg had a tough time getting pressure on the quarterback again in week thirteen. Look for Toronto to roll out Michael Bishop while his recievers spread out the thinning Winnipeg defense. This will open up patterns underneath the coverage and open up running lanes for for RB John Avery and QB Bishop to take what the Bomber defense gives them.

The Toronto defense meanwhile; has had their hands full with other teams running games recently, giving up over two hundred yards to Hamilton. Winnipeg just does not have enough weapons on offense to sacrifice RB Charles Roberts in that fashion, nevermind the offensive line to pull it off. Roberts is still capable of gaining over one hundred yards per game if his team is leading or in a close contest. But............................

I see a letdown coming for Winnipeg here. Winnipeg are 1-5 ATS this year as a favorite, 0-3 as a fav. of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Toronto shot themselves in the foot several times in their last contest with Hamilton ... and cannonballs can hurt ... ask me!

Toronto lacked discipline in that contest and it cost them a victory. They seemed more intent to get their money's worth in cheapshots and retaliation, rather than focusing on the contest at hand.

To his credit, Michael Bishop had his coming out party in that game, providing tremendous leadership under duress. HC Mike Clemons lost control of his team, and Bishop saved the day.

I see Clemons, Bishop and Co. regaining composure in this contest while the Bombers draw the short straw with only five days to prepare for this one.
 
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tinman

Active member
Edmonton @ BC

In week two, the Dave Dickenson led BC Lions strolled into Commy Stadium and took a 23-3 lead, on the way to a 41-34 victory. Dickenson was replaced by Casey Printers in the third quarter. Casey sealed the deal. The two teams racked up over 1000 passing yards in the game. 1000! Wow! Jason Maas was also spectacular, completing 27-39 for 497 yards and three TD's.

In week four, the Eskimo defense mushed into BC Place and froze up the potent BC offense, holding them to an ordinary 257 passing yards. Jason Maas (20/28-185) and Mike Pringle (15-139) led the way for the Schmoes who were bolstered with several defensive returnees in the game. Edmonton were victorious 25-9. Casey Printers made some mistakes in the game, fumbling twice and was sacked three times because of the Edmo pressure.

This is the rubber match. It will go a long way to deciding the West Division Champ.

Both teams have improved since those early contests. The passing games are potent, with great offensive line protection, high completion percentages and a handfull of talented recievers on both squads. At this point, I would have to say that BC has the better running attack. Mike Pringle is the only reliable back on the Edmo squad and seems to be wearing down as his career progresses although he has his moments.

After a slow start, the BC run defense is second in the league, giving up 73 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Part of that is beause they have the lead in most of their games meaning the other team has to pass. I expect BC to keep a closer eye on Pringle. He will get his record for yardage in this game, requiring only two yards, but might find the going tough.

Edmonton's rush defence nets 105 yards per game. Injuries have prevented them from gaining familiarity and consistency with their defensive personel. BC will test them, averaging 107 YPG rushing.

Both pass defenses give up 300 or more yards per game and a completion average of 58% or better.

I do expect both teams to try to establish the run, but I don't expect either to stay with it very long as both passing games are red-hot. BC has the more balanced offense.

I think Casey Printers has matured enough to avoid his previous performance from week four, so I expect more points than 9 from BC.

BC had injuries to DE #90 Mawuko Tugbenyoh (wrist) and OT #68 Cory Mantyka (knee) in their last game. Either would be hard to replace. For Edmonton, Mike Pringle looked like he had a stinger bother him for most of the game as he had trouble holding on to the ball.

BC are 4-5-1 as a -6 fav or less in the last two years. 4 of the ats losses were against west division teams. All 4 of those ats losses were "straight up" losses. This could be a good spot for a moneyline dog.

I lean to the over in the dome.
 
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tinman

Active member
Saskatchewan @ Hamilton

This will be the second consecutive roady for the Greenies. They only have one win to show in six tries on the road in 2004, and have lost each of their last six contests in Hamilton. The last two losses were 3 point losses.

Hamilton were lambasted by Montreal in week thirteen by a score of 47-18. Saskatchewan also tasted defeat, losing 27-24 to Winnipeg.

A win by the Tabbies will be paramount as Ottawa are playing the leagues worst team this week .......... Calgary and need a win badly to stay in the playoff hunt. A loss by Hamilton here would make the two Ottawa/Hamilton contests coming up, very interesting.

This is a revenge game for Hamilton who lost to Sask in week 7 after spotting them 23 points. Hamilton rallied to take the lead 24-23 before surrendering the last 10 points and the game. The final score was 33-24 in the Riders favor.

The TiCats RB Troy Davis, scorched the Riders with 166 rushing yards in only 18 carries. He should have another stellar day. Davis is having an allstar season behind his veteran offensive line. He has taken a ton of pressure off the back of QB Danny Mac. and the interceptions have decreased in the process.

Kenton Keith had 102 yards on 13 carries for the Riders in that week seven contest, but has been nursing a knee injury in recent weeks. At this time, he is doubtful for the Hamilton game. Saskatchewan ran a six reciever set in their last game with some slants and crossing patterns to get some desirable matchups against linebackers. They will have to resort to that again if Keith misses this game.

Hamilton has been stout against the run this year. However; injuries in the last two weeks have thinned their defensive line.

Sask. RB Cory Holmes did a great job as Keith's replacement against Winnipeg last week. The Sask. offensive line played fantastic. I just don't expect him to have as much success in this game as he had in his last game, unless Hamilton switches to a three four defense like Winnipeg plays. In a 3-4 scheme, the big Sask. offensive linemen will get to block against some smaller linebackers. That scenario can open up big holes for quick running backs like Holmes.

Holmes will not punnish you like Hamilton's Troy Davis can.

I like Hamilton here because of Troy Davis. If Hamilton can run the ball, the passing lanes will open up on the play action fakes which are some of D. Mac's favorite plays .... and it will be a long day for the Sask. defense.

Is the linemaker scared of Sask. as a dog? Sask is 9-2 su and ats after two straight up losses. They are 17-6 ats as a dog in the last 3 years. However; they are 1-3 ats as a 1 to 3 point dog in those contests.

The Ham. -1 line actually makes Saskatchewan the favorite here and though I would love to see them win, they (Sask.) just don't deserve to be a favorite. The Hamilton fans have been loud & proud this year. I expect that to continue for this contest.



If Hamilton gets the lead, the fans will make it very hard on Henry Burris to work his majic.

Did I say I like Hamilton to win?
 
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lasvegasles

Active member
Tin

Thanks as always for the excellent job Tin. Fabulous! I agree that the Edmonton/BC game is the marquee matchup of the week. Both teams have won in the other's park but it's pretty hard to bet against the Lions winning streak. Both QB's with excellent numbers. I look for a shootout here-going with the Over and a BC cover.

The one thing the Bombers have going for them is a little more confidence after b2b wins over those "green bastards":D I look for a low scoring close one here similar to the 14-6 Argo win over the Blue earlier in the season but maybe with a little more offence from Winnipeg and maybe just maybe they can scratch out a close one.

Cats may give the Riders fits. They desperately need Kenton Keith back. Burris is running out of bounds and sliding about two yards before he has to. Anyone else notice this? He cost his team a few first downs in Winnipeg. What's he doing-posing as a cover boy for GQ?

Calgary/Ottawa...who cares? I'll go shopping to load up for the Edmonton/BC game and NFL Sunday!

Thanks again for the nice early start to the week. Required reading every week for me my friend! Now play us a tune on that ol banjo of yours!
 

tinman

Active member
Week 14 lines: OLY

Thanks Les!

The Winnipeg/Tronna game should be low scoring. It looks like there could be rain out west this week. How bad is Keith Stokes hurt ... he was having a monster game when he got hurt and will be dearly missed if he is out.

Hamilton will lay a physical beating on Sask. after taking it on the chin in Moreal.

Thanks again Les and good luck this week!


................Oh, I'm a lonesome cowpoke ..... and I poke lonesome cows...........fade end.

Calgary -1 O/U 54

Wpg -3.5 O/U 44 ................. -3.5 and fourty four?

BC -3.5 O/U 58

Hamilton -1 O/U 52 .......... -1? what am I missing?

Bol everybody!
 

a hockey fan

Active member
Tin, I like hte Bombers to beat the Argos :D we are on a roll and hopefully we can keep it going on Saturday. :D I hate westwood as much as you do, maybe more. I think Stokes may play, he has to we need a win :D
 

tinman

Active member
LOL!

We need a win too, but Ron Lancaster won't be playing!

Argos ... crush you like a bug!

Riders fold like a cheap umbrella.

Hate is such a stong word! Troy has had his 15 minutes of fame and will need to keep his head up when playing Montreal or Sask.

Good luck this week AHF.......thanks for the reply!
 

tinman

Active member
Thanks AHF ... I thought it looked serious. Hopefully the CFL.ca site will get off the schneid and give us the injuries. They are really slacking off!
 

Biggie

New member
Great write-ups again Tin........

Hamilton is running very low on D-linemen Tin. At the labour day classic they switched #52 Bakker(o-line) too #97 and were going to play him on the d-line until their center got hurt, then they needed him back on offense. Now if your next available d-lineman is so bad you need to put somebody from offense in you're in trouble(one d-lineman got booted from the game, the other one broke his leg and dislocated his ankle). Just be careful with this one. And yes the Labour Day Classic was a hell of a game to be at.

I like the Argos as well Tin. Bad Moon Rison and the rest of the criminals on that team should beat the Bombers this week.

So I guess you guys aren't going to run out and buy Westwoods new Cd then...........LOL

Good Luck,
Biggs
 

tinman

Active member
Thanks for the update Biggie!

The Ham/Moreal game was not televised so I could not see what personel they had on the field. The game was over before the half, so I expect/hope Hamilton rested a few of their banged up players.

I expect DL's Montford, Belli, Cheatwood and Scott to cause plenty of havoc early. You are correct, they are thin after that. Can they last the game?

Westwoods CD ... a dreamdate in kneepads with Paul Williams? ... Nope!

The LDC you mentioned was a classic!

Good luck this week Biggie!
 

tinman

Active member
Injury & transaction notes:

***BC OL Cory Mantyka's knee injury was not as serious as expected. He is an important cog in the O-line.
Status: He is on the roster for the Edmonton game.

***BC DL Tugbenyoh (wrist) ? He has solidified the BC D-line, providing contain on the end and is a probable rookie of the year candidate.*** He is on the roster for the Edmonton game.

*Calgary lost both of their long snappers in their previous game and will be auditioning a new one ... er ... guy this week. Don't you love it when I talk dirty? Bill Chamberlain played in 18 games last season in BC. Any time you change the timing in the p/k game, things can go wrong.*

*Calgary P/K Hebert ??? Some guy named Clinton Greathouse was their p/k in the last game against Edmo.* Greathouse will start against Ottawa.

Calgary RB Joffrey Reynolds was brought into camp after being cut by the NFL's NY Giants. He is 5'10" 221 lbs and also returns kicks (St. Louis of the NFL in '03) Ike will start this week.

***Calgary signed DL Demetrious Maxie who has played in the CFL with several teams and is a "Nate Davis" type of player, and even better against the run***
STATUS?: Maxie will play. He will improve the D-line play.

***Winnipeg WR and P/K returner Keith Stokes (ankle sprain)
According to GM Taman ... injury is pretty bad. They are looking for some replacements ... it will be hard to find someone as versatile as he also played in the backfield.***
*EDIT/ADD The Bombers signed RB P/K Returnman Hugh Smith 5'8" 165 (South Florida) who had cups of coffee with Cleveland and Balty of the NFL and tried out in NFL Europe with Cologne.
Status for the game: ***Stokes is on the roster for the Toronto game.*** How good is his ankle???

**Winnipeg Safety Jeff Drover (hamstring) ... iffy for the contest and that injury will also mess with the import ratio ... not good
Canadian reciever turned CB Marcus Howell (broken hand) might be his replacement. If not, an import will have to start at CB, taking away another important import position and leaving winnipeg scrambling to find a Canadian to put on the roster that can actually help the team. I say put in Cory Olynick ex-Regina Ram but what do I know? Have him spell the useless Wade Miller in the offensive backfield**
Drover is out, Olynick is in.

**Ottawa WR Pat Woodcock (toe) status: Doubtful He was not having a good year after portaging from Montreal in the offseason, but is important as he helps stretch out the field for the Ottawa team while Other teams have to respect his abilities)** Woodcock is out.

**Ottawa DE Kai Ellis and C George Hudson will be welcome additions to the Ottawa roster** See Ranek run.
Hudson will play. Ellis is out.

*** Ottawa LB Kelly Wiltshire (achilles) STATUS: PROBABLE is the most important member of the defense and cannot be replaced. If he goes down, so does Ottawa's defense.***
Wiltshire will play, but might not last the contest.

****Toronto Arland Bruce WR will return to face his old team in the Manicapitol this week. IMO ... when he left the Bombers is when Khari started having trouble ....JMO****
Bruce will play.

**Add/EDIT Toronto added RB Skip Hicks (ex NFLer) to their roster ...this seems like important insurance as John Avery is still experiencing problems with his surgically repaired knee ... stay tuned**


Toronto: Miles is out. Levingston is out. Ol Mihelic is back from a knee injury. DB Ivory is out and will be replaced by Kenny Wheaton.

Add/Edit BC added OL Tango McCauley to their practice roster. He was a good player for the Riders last year and BC is fortunate to get him after his tryout with the Dallas Cowboys.

Add/Edit


Hamilton: Center Carl Coulter ? Will update Saturday.

**Edmonton: WR ED Hervey ??? He is another deep threat, is big and physical.** They do have plenty of recievers, but Hervey would be missed. Hervey is out and so is WR Brock Ralph.

***Edmonton DB Donny Brady ??? (non football injury) ...was actually stabbed/sliced at a Calgary nightclub a few weeks back and will be missed in the secondary if he does not play against the potent Lions*** Brady will play.

Sask: ****Kenton Keith will play*****. OL Fred Childress is slated to replace Donald Heaven on the OL. Check with the Iraqui information Minister.



Will update later and thanks for the kind words JF! Good luck this week and thank goodness for DD's .....designated drivers ... I know what you were thinking ...LOL!
 
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Jimmy Fingers

Active member
thanks Tin

great thread guys thanks for the info from all

Biggs that was a classic game, would have been nice if they kept playing instead of a tie game, oh ya thanks for driving my drunk ass home.

I think the Argos will win but the under is the play for me this week on that game

BOL
Fingers
 

lasvegasles

Active member
Bomber injury update

Stokes is OUT for sure for the game with the Argos
and possibly longer with a badly sprained ankle.
They may use either Charles Roberts or Derrick
Smith to return kicks but Taman is also looking for
another receiver/kick returner.

Geoff Drover is still questionable...same with Markus
Howell who may play with a cast on his hand.
 

tinman

Active member
Thanks Les!

Here are some Winnipeg player profiles of players to watch:

#5 QB Kevin Glenn (Illinois State) he was aquired by trade at the beginning of the season as a backup for Khari Jones. As it turned out, he has replaced Jones in several contests and has started a few since Khari went down with a sore shoulder. Glenn is a quick study, has a quick release and is resourceful. He has been well recieved in the CFL community and will be a regular starter in the near future with one lucky team....not Sask. unfortunately.

#17 QB Khari Jones (California Davis) has been the regular starter in Winnipeg and lit the CFL on fire in 2000/2001/2002 before experiencing some dificulties last year with injuries and personel changes to the team that were money related. He just signed a multi year multi million dollar contract and is nursing a shoulder injury.

#97 OL Doug Brown (Simon Fraser) is a 6'9" 300+ pound giant of a man who opens up holes for the diminutive Charles Roberts.

#56 DE Elfrid Payton (Grambling) is nearing the CFL record for career sacks. He is nearing the end of his career, but has a quick first step and is always a threat to the opposing teams quarterback.

#1 RB Charles Roberts (Sacramento State) This 5'6" dynamo is one of the leagues most versatile and dangerous weapons. He plays bigger than his size at the running back spot and has the quickness to outrun most of the opposition. He is great at catching the ball out of the backfield and can also play on return teams. In four years, he has over 10,000 all purpose yards and could catch Toronto HC Pinball Mike Clemons record of 25,000+ if he stays healthy. He has been surprisingly durable.

#85 WR Milt Stegall (Miami of Ohio) has been Mr. Clutch for the Bombers forever and will be a hall of famer when he is finished. He is a classy and talented competitor.

#44 DE Tom Canada (California Berkeley) is ripping it up in his rookie campain and is my candidate for Western Conference rookie of the year. His motor never stops running. He has introduced himself to most of the opposing quarterbacks and is among the top sack leaders in the league.

#3 P/K return specialist Keith Stokes (East Carolina) is one nifty runner ... like a jack rabbit to the opposition. He is also versatile and gives the Bombers great field position all day. Injuries have curtailled his last few seasons. The Bombers need to get him healthy for the stretch run.

#7 Kicker Troy Davis (Augustana College Sioux) Troy is a darn good kicker and quite a character. He keeps things interesting across the league with huge fan clubs in Montreal and Saskatchewan. He is only 5'1" tall but kicks and spouts off like a six footer.
 
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lasvegasles

Active member
Tin

Elfrid Payton actually is second all time in sacks. I think
he was 8 behind Grover Covington going into this year
and he got his first sack on Sunday vs. the Riders.
 

tinman

Active member
Thanks Les

I heard nothing about it since the beginning of the season, I thought he was only two shy at that time and I assumed he made it early in the year.

Have a good week LVL!

BTW: WR Matt Dominguez will be back in town thursday to talk with the Riders. I don't know if he will catch the plane to Hamilton yet.
 
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