Week 1 NFL lineup, odds

[jughead]

As I'm sure everyone is aware, the NFL sked is up and lines are hitting the boards. Thought I'd post the numbers from one of my books here and we can start picking this year's early winners.

Thursday Night: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-6.5)

Sunday, 1 pm Eastern Time Start:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5) AT BUFFALO BILLS *Home Dog
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-4)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS *Home Dog
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT DETROIT LIONS (-3)
OAKLAND RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7)
ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT NEW YORK JETS (-2.5)
TENNESSEE TITANS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS *Home Dog
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ('Pick em')

Sunday, 4:25 pm Eastern Time Start:
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4.5)
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT ST. LOUIS RAMS (-4)

Sunday Night Football: NEW YORK GIANTS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-3)

Monday Night Football, Early Game: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-6.5)

Monday Night Football, Late Game: HOUSTON TEXANS (-2.5) AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS *Home Dog

 

[jughead]

Here's one note I found from early last season:

Since the NFL started opening the season with its Super Bowl champ hosting the party, home teams are 8-0 SU, winning by a 10.0-point average margin of victory.

Obviously Dallas ended that streak by beating the Giants in 2012 and the Ravens don't get the luxury of starting at home. Getting a touchdown or more, I start to lean Ravens in Week 1 at Denver but I think I'd rather wait on the total and pound that to go "Over".

Week 1 home favorites of -4 points or more were 14-25 O/U from 2005 to 2010 but the tide has turned.

Week 1/11: KC, CLE, ARI, SF, SD and NYJ were the six host teams "live" and results were 5-1 O/U

Week 1-12: NYG (-3.5/-4), CHI, NOR, HOU, DET, GB and BAL were seven host teams "live" and results were 5-2 O/U

2011 was the lockout year and 2012 we had bush league refs, maybe things get back to normal this year. Who knows. Should usually wait on the weather in Denver before betting any game over but this total should come out far before any accuate foreast.

 

[tks777]

Thanks for the good info jughead. I would also be very inclined to playing the over.

 

[jughead]

Was going through some of my off-season NFL notes this morning and found this note for a Week 1 play I made almost a month ago. Thought I would post it here in case anyone is interested in booking early on a total that I think has a good chance of dropping below a key number. There is still a couple 41.5's out there but it looks like 41 is the common number today. Still a good value, IMHO.


On Tuesday, June-11-13 I made my first NFL wager of the 2013 season at SIN. The play is on TB-NYJ UN 41.5 based on a strong system for Wk 1 ICF HDs

 

[jughead]

There was an injury note tonight on Total Access suggesting Jets WR Santonio Holmes could likely miss at least the first four weeks of the regular season as he continues to recover from a Lisfranc injury. The Bucs are up to -1.5 or -2 but the total is still holding strong at 41.

Non-conference home dogs in Week 1 are just 10-17 SU since 1989 and although they’ve covered at a 13-14 ATS clip, eight of the 13 covers were by teams getting at least a field goal.

Bucs have a big home opener on-deck vs. New Orleans but the Jets have to play four days later in New England. Double-look-ahead I guess you could call it. TB was nothing special on the road last season but in their one non-conference road game against a crappy team (Oakland, Wk 9), Tampa put up 42 points.

The Jets only broke 20 points at home twice last year; once against the Bills and once against the Colts. In their five home losses New York scored an avg of 12.4 PPG.

Could see this being a 20-17 game either way and I’m leaning towards laying the -1.5 with the Bucs before it climbs any higher.

 

[jughead]

Ravens blew the Bucs out of the water in preseason Wk 1 and then somehow stormed back with 20 fourth quarter points against the Falcons’ second-teamers to win 27-23 in preseason Wk 2.

DEN is 1-0 in the preseason and facing a tough challenge Saturday night in Seattle. They finish with home games against STL and ARI while the Ravens host CAR before travelling to STL for NFLX Wk 4.

I’m not sure how much the results of these next few weeks will impact the line for Week 1, BAL at DEN game but getting +8.5 I’m ready to throw down a couple units on the road team and the over.

BAL +8.5
BAL at DEN OV 47.5

Ravens score at least 20 points and I can’t lose both bets.

 

[Brick]

like that side play in this one Jug. Great thread. Love looking ahead to try and find some value with these week 1 lines.

GL

 

[jughead]

Thanks Brick.

Biggest Week 1 Line Moves

Seeing more movement on sides than totals and here are the games that have been on a ride from where they opened in April.

1. Ravens at Broncos, was DEN -7
I’m already booked on the dog and the over; looks like it DEN might hit -10

2. Pats at Bills, was NE -5 and now NE -10
Second to the T-Bay at Jets game in terms of biggest change. The total on this game has also dropped three points.

3. Vikes at Lions, was DET -2.5 and now DET 4.5/-5
Vikes have to open at DET and then at CHI. Their 0-3 SU/ATS record in preseason hasn’t helped.

4. Bucs at Jets, was NY -2.5 and now T-Bay -3
Was leaning Bucs at -1.5; just gonna stick with the under now but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Ryan fired by Week 10. Jets will be lucky to have 3 wins by then but 1-8 or 0-9 is possible.

5. KC at JAX, was 'Pick em' and now KC -3.5
Reid’s got a nice little run going on Wk 1 games but I think Jags stay close; maybe even win straight-up.

6. Philly at WSH, was Skins -6.5 and now -3.5
This line will go back up as soon as RG3 gets confirmed. Could see it close at -5.5/-6. Anyone else think this total looks too high?

 

[1sob]

JUG,
I took tb-3,clv pk and the sucker bet of the week sea -3
I will be posting my picks and reasoning early next week

I think RG3 wont play and I want to see skins defence can handle philly offensive pace

GL this season

 

[jughead]

Thanks Sob, like the Bucs to win that game too. I know they have Saints on-deck but come on, this is week 1. Jets look so dysfunctional right now, tampa should be able to go in and win 17-3 or something like that. I already took Tampa Bay as my team D in first fantasy league for Week 1.

I like Cleveland but my plan was to hold out and try and bet the Colts early for Week 2 when they catch the Fish in the second half of a 2-and-2. Be a perfect scenario if Oakland could cause some problems in Indy Week 1.

Like the Hawks to win division this year. Hopefully it starts with a 'W' for ya in Carolina.

 

[1sob]

I sure hope so
Seattle is my kryptonite just ask OG
Og is trying to set up a mini choir practice this weekend
are you free ??

 

[Westcoaster]

They got RG in for MNF......I like a futures of Wash under 8...they have a bitch of a sched. this year.
Teams have seen III now, and he ain't gonna forget his hurt from LY.
Nice stuff jug

 

[jughead]

I'm still trying to dig into SWT's but tons of work lately and can't say no to that. Like that perspective on the Skins, though. I think NYG and Dallas are being overlooked a bit this year because of all the RG3 hype.

Been reading that Choir practice thread but I'm gone from Friday until late Monday for a camping trip. Getting outta Dodge with a bunch of friends. Last chance to breathe the fresh air before the weekly chaos begins!

 

[jughead]

Booked my two plays for tonight’s game almost three weeks ago; little bit of value on both.

I know that a lot of people could care less about public percentages but I glanced at the numbers from one site today and see that the "Over" is getting attention. Also found a note saying that through the first 12 weeks of 2012 the primetime games with lopsided action to the "Over" were 1-9 O/U. They split in Wk 13 and those were the last two primetime totals of the regular season so they finished at 2-10 O/U. Not enough to talk me off this total but I’m definitely going to watch for line moves on that HOU at SD Monday nighter. Leaning to that game staying under as it is.

Enjoy the game tonight fellas.

 

[MP40]

Good luck Jug! Enjoy the game.