Early buys, NFL & Kids

[Sonny Palermo]

I already bought Dal/TB Un 42, sorry I didn't get it in here b4 that ship sailed.
Also bought TB Un 6' but don't think that's around anymore either; 6 is still good though.

I bought GB -3.
A little more than 99.9% of you are going to watch the Sunday night game. Wait until then and you will have to lay 3' or 4. Buy it now and you can get a middle if you want.

I also bought, and I think gave out here, Ala Un 38 and Aub Un 45.

 

[pacer]

GL Sonny. I am sure you have this one right "A little more than 99.9% of you are going to watch the Sunday night game". I figured it was more than 99% .

 

[Sonny Palermo]

And now, after three straight performances of 14 points or more by the GB 1st string offense,
WITH a 1st string defense that has yielded, what? - 3 PPG in the pre,
I am 99.9% sure that -3 will disappear even sooner.

 

[toebaber]

Couldn't agree more. I'm not sure why everyone is so in love with Chicago. Sure they added Cutler, but their defense has been terrible the last few years and is definitely getting old. They have ZERO weapons at WR, and other than Forte and Cutler, they don't have a great offense either. I just don't see how this team is better than a 9-7 or so bunch.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

I'm with you Toe, I think Cutler is in for a rude awakening when he no longer benefits from 4 per season vs KC and Oak.
And there seems to be a lck of unity/harmony in the locker room that will no doubt affect the on field performance if it does not cease.

Even if bettors like Chi, they could buy GB -3 now and get Chi +3' or 4 at game time.
I just wanted to bring this to everyone's attention because I know everyone will be watching it, and know that many procrastinate or are not proactive; so, get the -3 now, while you can, rather than lay 3 and a hook or 4 on Sunday night.

 

[RGOODIE1]

I like the Packers play & Rodgers looked very good last night at Zona.Good luck with all of em Boss. GLTA GOODIE

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Everyone who likes GB and heeded early buy notice did very well.
GB now -3', and 3' -115 already starting to show at some places.
I'm upping my rating on -4 from possible to probable.
Joe P is well known for:
laying out too many action bets on game days,
chasing losses,
betting at the last minute,
and betting on the favorite.
Add all those factors up on opening day, and . . .

Standard, late Sunday night money hasn't shown yet, and if dogs rule the day and it's bail out time, -4 is a cinch.

Side note - miscalculation: 'Bama is not an Under play for the thing we used last year. Auburn Un 45 (posted b4 # dropped? 8/16'ish?) Army Un 47', USC Un 49, and Tenn Un 45 games all fit, all bought.
Will it work this year? Hell if I know.

 

[Ohyeah]

Side note - miscalculation: 'Bama is not an Under play for the thing we used last year. Auburn Un 45 (posted b4 # dropped? 8/16'ish?) Army Un 47', USC Un 49, and Tenn Un 45 games all fit, all bought.
Will it work this year? Hell if I know.

Sonny, what were the numbers last year for this?

 

[Sonny Palermo]

It was 38-16, all of them right here in the archives, time stamped and dated.
The year before it was 16-5, so the 2 year total is 54-21, 72%.
Not sure if that includes playoffs, 0-1 LY, 4-1 the year before; the reason '07 only had 21 plays is I only found it half way through the season. In profiles, nothing works 4ever, have no idea if it will be profitable this year but I'm charting and playing them all this week. LY I played everyone, but 2 of them I faded - and got my butt kicked. I have a similar spot for the Over, but it was .500 LY, I'll chart it again this year to see if it is profitable and if it is I'll add some of those too.
Some of the guys rode with me a lot of LY, but then it had an 0-5 week and I think some jumped off. But, here's the thing - check the archives (search for the words "kids play") and you'll see a week by week thread. Whenever it had a losing week (and I think there were only 2, 3 at most) it came back and won the next week, so after a losing week is when you should ride it, not bail out. At least that's how it was LY.
Also somewhere in the archives is a post where I did a look at the second half in games where the first half went Over. The record for betting the first halfs was a winner, and if you played Under in the second half of games where the first half did go over you got your money back.
This season? Don't know, like I said, time will tell . . .

 

[toebaber]

I will tail along boss. Just to clarify, there is no play on the Bama under...or is that just not part of your system?

 

[Sonny Palermo]

'Bama was a miscalculation on the part of a stat site I used; it did qualify, as did one other play, but I always double check the numbers a day or two after initial handicap; when I did a double check it did not qualify, close, but no Lewinsky (was she the cigar chick, or was that some other political ho?)
Anyway, I checked with the site - they said they occasionally alter the original numbers posted, and that's what happened here - 'Bama is not a play.

*Note - While 'Bama is not charted as a play for this, it'll count on my record here because I do have it in pocket, bought it weeks ago at 38, as noted in another thread here.

Update on other early buys - good move on USC, saved 2 points there, Tenn stayed the same, but Aub could have picked up a point, bought at 45, did drop to 43 but up to 46 this morn; could have gained a half point on Army too.

Good luck to you this kids season, Toe . . .

Final tally, plays shared for this week (not including ones I bought that had line changes b4 recommending):
LA Tech/Aub Un 45 (like)
Army/ E Mich Un 47' (?)
W Keny/Tenn Un 45 (like)
SJ St/USC Un 49 (like)
GB -3 (really like)
V Tech/'Bama Un 38 (don't like)

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Up 28-0 and classless-as-usual Lame Kiffin whines to the on field announcer before the half about how much he should be up by. Hard to be the biggest Douchebag in the division when your div also has Spurrier, but Lame pulls it off.

Up 28, W Kent has ball around their own 35, kiffin calls timout with 59 seconds, then 44 sec and 23 sec.
W Kent has zero ability to stop the Tenn run, they can't tackle and they are out of place positioning wise. I bought Tenn -13 and Ov 21 second half.

 

[Ohyeah]

4th and 4 from his own 40 with 13 minutes to go in the third qtr up 28-0.... serioulsy? wow

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Yeah, that's the kind of coaching that led to buying Tenn and Ov 2nd half; that adjustment took us from 0-1 in the morning game to 2-1;

next game - SJ St just gave up 21 points in 7 minutes, including a TD with 20 seconds left;
USC scored on four straight possessions and took us from looking good on the Under to what appears to be another L. same adjustment as first play, bought USC -14 and Ov 21'

 

[havana]

nice job on kiffin Sonny...