Kids play week 2

Sonny Palermo

New member
Week 1 recap:
Survived by wits last week rather than early play. The method I used for picking Unders the past 2 season got off to a lousy start at 1-3. Let's look at them to see what we can use going forward.
The first two games, Tenn and USC saw a 0-0 & 3-0 Q1's, only to completely unravel in Q2. I hope the books adjust Tenn totals for the Kiffin factor and hope Tenn is not a play in any of these for the rest of the season.
We hit with Army, and Auburn looked good with just 17 points and LESS THAN A MINUTE to go until half time, then Aub and LA Tech BOTH scored FG's??!!
With 36 at the end of Q3 we needed a defensive Q4 but a TD by Auburn at the 5 minute mark cost us.
On the plus side, I did well with half time adjustments, hitting all four.
Should have been a 5-3 day but I was saddled with the V Tech/Bama game that I incorrectly called as a play for this method, so, though my scheduled play went 1-3 I still escaped with a profit.

Charted but not played were Overs from the above method, and team totals from a thing I was developing at the end of last year.
Overs went 2-3, with Rut Ov 48' left. These were .500 LY, charting to see if they are any better this season.
Team totals show some promise - Ov went 1-3, but Un went 7-3. Col Un 31' & Col St Un 21 both qualify tonight, not sure what/if I will play.

Week 2:
I will update here as soon as I am done capping the card.
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
NCAA totals play went 1-3 first week.
First Under of this week is Clem/Ga Tech.
Each can get 20 so I think the opener is low, but will stick with what has worked in the past until it doesn't.
Four more to come.

Clem/G Tech Un 45 (don't like it)
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
"Each can get 20 so I think the opener is low."

And . . . each DID get 20 POINTS.
I SO much wanted to fade this one, but the 2 times I did last season I lost. When I first started charting this 2 years ago I thought they would possibly good spots for Over, but they weren't and we made a killing on Unders.
Now, 1-4 to start the year, with four left this weekend, and I am definiteley thinking, "Nothing works forever, the pendulum is starting to swing the other way, stay ahead of the curve and start playing these Over NOW."

I can't do it. I can't abandon it after just 5 games.

E Mich/NWest Un 52
Miss St/Aub Un 44
S Fla/W Kent Un 48'

Don't buy any yet, as I think at least 2 of 3 will rise.
55/25
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
Roost, the problem with the So Flo game is, yeah, I see W Kent lucky to get 10 also, but I think So Flo can put up 45 on their own. Same problem with the final game, Mia Oh/Boise Un 52', I think Boise can put up 52 all by themselves.

I've been struggling with these all day, but I'm gonna do it - first two fades of the season: I'm buying off So Flo Un and taking Ov 48, and taking Ov 52 in Boise.
 

toebaber

Active member
I agree Sonny. I don't like the "looks" of those unders. I've never seen an Auburn offense move at the pace it did in game 1. If they move the ball on offense, there will be quick points scored. And I agree with your thoughts on USF and Boise. I might wait out this week and hopefully we'll get some new teams to take unders next week other than WKU (who allows a ton) and Auburn (who is running the Tulsa highpaced offense). Hopefully your numbers will adjust after a few weeks worth of stats and get us some more visually enticing unders.
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
I'll keep the charts the same way, to follow along with how this thing goes this year but I bought off Aub Under & N W Under this morn too (bleeding lost juice this week.) I don't think the oddsmakers adjusted enough for the new coaches and different philosphies - these are NOT the same Aub and Miss St teams that met last year. I am not in a good head this week, usually I'm clear and precise, too much back and forth, uncertainty, better to just watch and chart. I'm not even sure what bets I have, or don't. A lot of work to do today. Have the 2 Overs mentioned above and still not sure what else.
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
Last year I recommended to posters , 'Don't jump off this thing just cuz it has a losing week - all 2 (3?) losing weeks were followed by winning weeks - after a loss is the time to jump ON, not off."

And what do I do this year? It goes 1-3 week 1, I go schizo, back-and-forth, I jump off, and it goes 3-2.
AND I GO 0-2 (missed with Clem/Ga Tech, and faded Boise and lost; 0-3 on fading it now.)

Douchebag.

THIS WEEK I'm . . .
 

Ohyeah

New member
i'll admit your flip flopping made me nervous. so I laid off all of the plays.. I think I am going to watch one more week and see how they go... I did my own damage yesterday anyway. good luck.
 

toebaber

Active member
You are right Sonny that oddsmakers have yet to adjust totals for the Auburn offensive strategy. This offense will put up alot of points this year.
 
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