MLB card for Saturday

Sonny Palermo

New member
Two plays are active in top profile spot as I go for the numbers I mentioned here the other day in the 2 page thread:
Balt/Chi Un 9, TB/KC Un 8.

It sux that the game I waited for, to get to 40 W's, is on a game I really don't like - Chi has been tearing the cover off of the ball, and combined with a lousy O's pitching staff Chi could hit this total on their own! The # here should be 10'. I'm not playing it.
This game also fits another profile, the "over 20" one, 12-6 on the year.

I took KC and got in early so I got the 8 and low juice, too.
Not crazy about Kaz, but overall record supports a play here.

Day/night is on in Atl, took that one too; Un 8.

Not a profile, but I took Min at +105 for my 3rd play MLB today, along with a fourth spot, reinvesting the BC +4' $ banked here the other night and using it on the Win/Ham game as noted in the big green guy's thread.

Luck with your plays today . . .
 

yaqui

New member
gran jefe Sonny, like both picks.
What do you think about SFco/Pitt over 8.5 after 14th inn 2-1 yesterday night?
Saludos and suerte amigo
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Yaq, I have no numbers or opinion on that spot, but maybe, for an exercise this week, I'll run through all games that followed a game that had 12 or more extra innings the night before to see if anything interesting pops up; if I see anything of value I'll post and let you know.

Just took a quick look at April.
Two games went 12 or more with the same teams playing each other the next day.

Tuesday RS 5 @ A's 6 12 innings, night game.
Wednesday RS 8 A's 2 day game.

Sat A's 2 @ Tor 1 12 innings, day game.
Sun A'S 0 Tor 1, day game.

One over, one under, one rd winner, one home team winner.
Only 2 games though, so who knows what might be found if we can get a few more in May, June and July. Home teams under maybe?
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
Team total thing got me curious, checked June (forgot to stop at May and check there first) so we now have 2 months of data:

In June, home teams went 5-5.
Over 4 Under 6
home team totals: 5-4-1 to the under for the home team,
but . . . eliminate interleague and you get 5-1 to the under for the home team.
Add April to that and you get 7-1.
Home teams that get stuck at the ball park late slack off the next day after sleeping at home?
Hell if I know. But at 7-1 it's worth adding May and July to date.
Anyone want to look and post results?

Pit team total at 4 Un -105.
This number is less than Zito's ERA so I don't like the play.
And his lifetime vs Pit is 4.09.
And he had a terrible outing last start, and too many HR's.

When I do team totals I like the ERA to be favorable;
if the # is 4 and I want an over I want at least a 4,
if I like the Under I want it under 4, season-long and last 5 games.
 
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yaqui

New member
Great info chief, Thanks.
Perhaps under first 5 inn,players tired NOT all game the bullpen is tired.
Saludos
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Chi wins 4-3, 40-14 now.
I'd say I out-smarted myself but there was nothing smart about it.
DOUCHEBAG!

Please tell me somebody had it?
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Sorry J, my bad.

Weeks ago I posted here about playing them all for TWO units from now on,
I didn't even have 1 unit today!
A-HOLE!!!!


ANYBODY have it?
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
So glad to hear that some of you played them all,
thanks for posting to let me know . . .

Jay C, yes, I had KC, but I was still pissed about, and referring to, not having 1 unit on O's/WS.
I said weeks ago, right here, that I was going to put 2 units on these from now on, and bad enough I still play 1 unit but there is no excuse for over-thinking and not playing at least 1 unit on ALL spots.

All 4 profile spots won yesterday, as did the CFL total (in the CFL thread) so a nice 4-0 day even with missing out on the O's/WS.

And, Pit team total stayed Under, so at 8-1 I'm going to keep an eye on that one from now on, too.
At this point in the season I have stopped keeping most MLB charts (have to make time for football charting, so MLB gets dropped) and now am just keeping charts on the 5 profiles (Betty and Veronica are the same profile, same chart, it's just that one is Over and one is Under) and using the ones that are profitable after the first half.

Here's what I have, (CHART #'S ONLY! I didn't play all of these; first you chart and look for high % plays, then when you isolate them you jump on and ride it until it bucks you) for the five I will maintain:

The Babe 39-14
Veronica 7-2
Betty 3-0
Ginger 13-4 +6.6 units
Maryann 12-6
Pamela 8-5

I got tired of referring to profiles as "this is the one that has x,x,x,x" so I decided to number them, but then I went to names instead.

The Ginger has units next to it because it only uses home favs, which can get pricey, so I post units also.
With the plays posted here yesterday we now have:
The BABE at 41-14
Maryann at 13-6
Pamela at 9-5
and when the BABE and Maryann are both active in the same game it's 8-3.

NEXT!
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
Don't know if I posted this here or not, sorry if it's a repeat, a blog I wrote last week, on when my chart became a play.

Thisclose to 40-14!

Going into the All Star break, my top performing profile is sitting at 39-14.

I want 40-14, it has a nice ring to it.

As I looked over my charts this morning I wondered when it was that I caught on to this profitable profile play, and began investing in it. It was an easy matter to find out - I only needed to compare the chart for this profile with my game log.

I knew this would not be a fun exercise.
I'm sure whatever I find I'm not going to be happy because too many W's will have already passed by without any wagers made but, you can't bet everything you chart; you chart first, look for edges, and invest accordingly.

Here's what I found:

The play actually started out as a 67% loser at 2-4.
In fact, when I came up with these parameters I thought it might be profitable as a play on the Over, so the chart was begun with W's next to Overs and L's next to Unders, and early on it was 4-2 on 4/18.

By 5/1 it was 4-7.

It hit 67% on Unders on 5/9 with a record of 5-10.
Still no plays in my log,and this is where I should have first taken notice.

By 5/16 it hit 7-16 (or, 16-7 as I now began to think of it) and still no plays.

IDIOT!

In my defense:
a - I do chart a lot of stuff
b - I was concentrating heavily on NBA playoff spots at this time
Nah, no excuses . . . IDIOT!! What the hell are you waiting for?

Now it gets funny - on 5/17 it wins, and is now at 17-7 Under.
FINALLY, only AFTER it hits 70% at almost 25 plays do I recognize it and decide to capitalize on it next time.
And I don't have to wait long to lay my money down - it's active again two days later on 5/19, in the Oak/TB game.

I assume that I do not have to tell you the results?

17-8 now.

Once bitten, twice shy, I lay off on the 5/21 spot; no play.

18-8.

Next up is 5/22, but it's the first interleague spot. Will it still work?
Hell if I know, so - lay off, no bet.

19-8.
(19-8 and I'm 0-1 on it - damn I'm good!)

From 5/26 to 5/31 it is active 6 times, and goes 5-0 with a rain out.
And I played ZERO of them.
No, I don't know why, I have no clue. Obviously.

Finally, staring at 24-8, 75%, I realize this is a "play every time spot" and I begin to make it the first chart I go to each morning to update and make plays from.

It's a long wait until the next play, on 6/7, when I jump on for TB/NY Un 9'.
Winner! 25-8, and I'm on my way.

39-14 now, and I have played most of them.
And I'm looking for one more, for 40-14 . . .



What I'm listening to:
"Great Horse" by T Rex (google it)

What I'm reading:

"Rites of Passage" by William Golding
Sorry, Bill, but . . . B-O-R-I-N-G.
But you are forgiven for any and all transgressions for dropping "Lord of the Flies" on us.
"Maybe there is a Beast . . . maybe it's only us."

What I'm watching:
Nothing.
Is it safe to turn on the TV yet or are we still getting 24/7 BREAKING NEWS on the death of Michael Jackson?

What I'm wondering:
1 - Why did I wait so long to start making plays on the profile noted above?
2 - What smells worse - pig vomit or nancy grace's cooter?
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
Nah, I'm not a twitter guy, or bizlink, or facebook or myspace;
a while back my Lit agent suggested I get involved with all of them for "platform purposes" but I'm not interested and have been holding out under slight pressure from a couple of friends.

Every once in a while I share what I'm reading or listening to, been doing it in posts before there was a twitter, which I just learned a bit more about last week. I kind of ignore most of that stuff, but last week someone in conversation mentioned twitter and who gets the most hits or whatever.
My only contribution to the conversation was that I am amazed that:

A - demi moore fuker whateverhisnameis actually is arrogant enough to think anyone gives a fuk what he's doing, and takes time to post x times daily about the minutia of his day
and
B - there are that many lifeless git losers in the world who actually DO look to see what he's doing

I guess it's just me, but . . . I hear about this stuff and just think - "who really gives a fuk? Get a life."
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
No plays today, nothing fits.
Sux cuz The BABE was, what? 18-0 on Sundays (it's in last Sunday's post or the Sunday before that one) and I was looking forward to shooting for 20.

I had a nice week - the plays from yesterday, the BC play, plus 1 other MLB spot (AZ Un on Thur? Fri?) and also split 2 golf matchups, missed with Poultergiest ("geist" because he vanished from the tournament just like my wager on him did) over Kaymer, but hit with Stensen over Ogilvy for a half unit profit (had a little more on Stensen than Poulter; good move.)

I swear I looked for "Tiger to miss the cut" but couldn't find it; wanted to get back at the fuker for the US Open $ he cost me. If the odds were high enough I would have risked a unit. The +175 avg price on him was ridiculous - on links, against 155 other players, AND in majors at courses he has never played before he was, I think, a 16% chance based on history (4 wins in 21 chances? I forget the #'s; I gave 'em out as a warning to Tiger backers the other day.)
I thought there'd be more rain, and we saw how lousy he was in round one at the US in the rain.
Friggin books, no real bookmakers out there anymore, the same 2 matchups everywhere, vs Garcia who has sucked this year and vs Harrington who missed the cut in what? 4 of last 5?, so I didn't use either.

I am Bungalow Bill - I will be Tiger hunting for the rest of the year.

Anyway, nice week, so I deserve a day off and I'm taking it.
Pick your spots.
Jump in, jump out.
Don't force anything.
It's a long baseball season, with plenty of time and other days, other games to look for edges in.

There is NO law that says you have to bet every day.
But your bookmaker hopes you do.

Good luck with your play today . . .
 
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berry

Active member
lol.....i personally know nothing about twitter with the exception of the fact that somehow you text what you are doing....i agree with you ...who gives a flying phuck......what i think is even more pathetic is the fact that there are people that follow those idiots...waht a phucking waste of time.....
 
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