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Sonny Palermo

New member
Sorry, lost track of time, thought I could get it in but Braves game started already.
Here is the full write-up:

LAD/SD Ov 7 1/2 -
This is the profile with 5 parameters necessary to qualify as a play, including 5 starts by each pitcher.
Last time active (on the Over) was on 6/17 when it won with Mil/Cleve.
It is charted at 5-2 this season.
Two of the spots featured SD at hm (5/17 vs Cin & 6/6 vs. Az) they are 1-1 Ov.

Det/Min
Two profiles active here, one has a record of 8-6.
The other is the 31-11 (friggin O's) spot.
Atl/Wash is also in that spot.
The Sat record is 5-3.
In the 42 games:
Atl 1-0 Under on the road.
Wash 2-1 Under as rd team, 0-1 Under as hm team.
Det is 0-1 Un rd, 1-0 Un hm.
Min is 2-1 Un hm.


Hou/SF
This the day-after-night profile, based on run differential the night before plus start time. We already banked a unit with this spot earlier this week with LA/Az on 6/27.
It is charted at 6-4 this year.
(note - some use this spot only with a range of 8' to 10' runs; I use all numbers.)
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
Well, we see why some don't play the day-night profile when the total is not between 8' and 10.
Still, bottom of the sixth, no one on base, 2 out, in a 2-0 game, you feel good with Un 7', right?
SF puts 6 across with 2 outs, and I get hosed on that one.

Atl/Wash almost blows, as Wash plates 4 in the bottom of the 8th and then their closer walks one, throws a wild pitch and walks another, but they hold on for us, and in that same spot that I outlined here back on June 28 we get Det/Min, too, so it's 2-0 today and charted at 33-11 now.

SD just scored in the ninth and made up for leaving the bases loaded earlier in the game,
and that one goes Over, 6-2 on that profile now and it seems to be picking up right where it left off last year and the year before. It wasn't a win based on the parameters though, as that leans on the performance by the starters, and ERA #'s and HR #'s, but both starters did well today, it wasn't until we got to the bullpens that we scored the necessary runs to get us Over.

If these keep hitting at the same %'s it will be a very fun July . . .
 
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Slynish

Active member
Thanks for the Dogers over Sonny...Played the Sf un but leaned more heavily on the LAD game so turned a profit. Been tailing some of your system winners of late and wanted to drop in a thanks....
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Welcome Sly, and thanks for stopping in to say so.
Watch for that other spot, too, it's been money.
It was 30-10 going into last week, then after the friggin O's gave up 4?5? whatever it was in the 9th of that Boston game that I posted here it went to 30-11, and I didn't think it would get back to 75%, not with that many plays. But we hit here with the Chi/Cle Un and it went to 31-11, and now after today's 2 wins it's at 75% again.

I keep saying I'm going 2 units from now on, and then don't, and kick myself for not doing so. NEXT TIME I'm . . .
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
You're welcome, and thanks for taking a minute to let me know you're reading these.

Today, nothing fits anything, that's the way it is, sometimes, like yesterday, we get 4 different profiles and four games to choose from, then there's days we get none. Like today.

I have a funny story for posters, about posting plays and the success we've had with totals, in particular last season with the NCAA Unders.
Will drop in tomorrow to post about it. (speaking of which - NCAA football is coming soon!)


(add on: for use tomorrow, I just dug this up from last year's end of year recap post:
A good run on Unders again this year, 37-16 reg season, 0-1 in bowls. Really looking forward to next season to try it again.)

(newer add-on: doing research, spotted this post from 12/5:
Got one only NCAA Under this week.
The good news is I have played and shared every one of these here, and it is 37-16.

That's better than 50 spots posted and played, and a hit rate of 70%.

That's better than a 2-1 W-L ration.

And, with only one spot left it means the reg season can do no worse than 37-17, still three games better than a 2 to 1 margin.


That play was USC/UCLA and it won, so reg. season was 38-16, 70%!)
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
My mistake on the "no plays" call. I did a quick look last night at Saturday results and with only 1-2 games left to be completed nothing fit, so I didn't think we'd have a play today. I just did my morning 'cap and TB/Tx fits the Under profile I outlined here last Sunday on the Col/Oak game, and used yesterday with Atl/Wash & Det/Minn, and the Halo's and O's fit the 5 parameter play on the Over.
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
You're welcome, and no, I didn't go for 2. I just keep saying I'm going to, and then when it wins I have nothing to complain about really, having banked a unit.
I'm a big proponent of betting same unit/like dollar amounts on every play, and 99% of mine are for the same amount assigned to each different sport. Basic math + common sense ='s a 2 unit play on some of my stuff, especially the ones with long history of success, but betting X amount each game is locked into my brain. Maybe this week I'll . . .

The O's/Angels game brings that profile to 7-2 on the season.
I think LY's #'s are here in the forum somewhere. I'll check when I go to do a look-back at NCAA Un's from last season - on those, I know I shared every play here and posted most of them well in advance of game day. I'm pretty sure we hit the main goal - over 50 plays and 67% or >. (update: we did, just dug it up and added it to the post above.)

The other play is still open tonight, but a free roll cuz there's no juice on it and we already banked O's/Angels. Waiting until game time to buy, who knows, being the stand alone night game, combined with newbies and knobs chasing their day time losses, maybe we can get a 10. Certainly won't go down, so no harm waiting for the best #.
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
You're welcome.
And since you were kind enough to post and say so, let me add Tor/NY fits as a play today, same as the TB/Tex spot yesterday. In fear of the dreaded Yank stadium HR thing I tallied the team trends within the profile: NY is 4-1 in this spot, 2-1 at home (Tor is 1-1, a loss on the road a win in Toronto.)

The story I mentioned yesterday, the reason I dug up last years stats:

A month or so ago I was researching boxing forums, hoping to find Joe P was not betting the guy I wanted to invest in. I came across a conversation on another fight, one I had a big stake in, so I registered and gave my opinion on it. Then this bozo comes in and "warns" other posters about me:
"This guy is a rip-off, I followed him last year. He calls himself "The Totals Expert" and gives out losing college picks at another forum trying to get you to buy his service!"

I replied "I have never referred to myself as an 'expert' anything. And those 'losing picks' you mentioned? They had a record of 37-16, more than fifty plays and 67%. And all free. Just like they'll be this year.
Sounds like someone got booted from another forum, faded me and lost his lunch money.
Glad to be of assistance, jackass."


I guess it was one of the tools that got booted from here last year.
It represents the worst of the internet -giving a voice to a-holes who post BS with no accountability while hiding behind anonymity.
They're almost as low as the service guys that copy picks and sell them as their own,
who are almost as low as the guys that copy picks and post them as their own in other forums.
I can't imagine a life so void of friendship and accomplishment that it causes these losers to copy and post picks as their own just to feel they get attention and respect from a bunch of faceless poster names in an internet forum. How vapid . . .
 
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pistol495

New member
Appreciate the follow up. Also seems like the TOR/NYY bullpens were quite sharp yesterday as well hopefully aiding to the play. This was needed in last night's affair.

How many times are people going to waste their time trolling, bashing, complaining in these forums when they simply need to look nowhere else but here. Do I scan the others, do I post occasionally (less than I would like), but in the end this is the first place I go when the internet is warming up.

On another note, I wonder if you or GC might have a bead on the situation that BAL is in tonight. Having blown 2 consecutive leads after the 6th inning and scoring 5+ runs in their last game and being on the road again, I really could see them folding tonight. Only problem is SEA coming off quite a road trip themselves. Perhaps BAL TT under?

Thanks again Sonny,
Pistol
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Sorry, I have nothing on the O's tonight, Tor/TB play was my only play.
Tough to get an Under when you get 3 HR's especially when one of them as 2men on base; 2 outs in the 3rd and a 0-1 count and Andy leaves one over the plate, that hurt. This spot was 2-1 at Yankee stadium, now 2-2, hope to avoid there in future games.

I'll post any other spots that show up this week.
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Yeah, no complaints though, had a good week at 10-3 (say it, Bela, please)
and most of those shared here, too.
Looking at my June log I see too many games played, too many picks not based on stuff other than profiles, so I'll look to be a bit more selective in July.
Overall season #'s are in the plus side, and 2-3 profiles have strong #'s, so I'll just hope a few of those plays kick out between now and Sunday.
Of 13 played last week 9 were profile spots, but that's rare, usually get 4-5 per week.
Already had one this week and took an L, need the rest to perform up to snuff.
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
I'm not playing it, just an FYI in case anyone is looking at it or wondering, Cin/Philly today fits the "after scoring combined 20 or more" spot.
I have the next game charted at 9-6, 60% to the Under.
Last year was similar.


Looking deeper, I only see 1 of the 15 spots had a team that scored 20 or more on their own,
Cleve on 4/19, next day the # was 10', the game ended at 10 for an under.
 
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