Sunday, June 9, 2019 NHL: Cup Finals, Game 6

jughead

Active member
BOS at STL, Game 6


The Blues are 21-10 on home ice since January. They posted a winning record each month from Jan-May and are 1-1 at home so far in June. Scoring avg 3.2-2.5 in the 31 games.


We’re sitting on the Blues to win the series at +144 so I don’t think I’ll be pressing here on the side but team totals are worth a look.


Tight series, off a lower scoring game, my system for non-lockout years suggests a 61% lean to the “Over" with home teams outscoring 2.9-2.7. The past two years have gone 12-4-3 O/U with home teams being outscored 3.1-3.3 on average.


The Bruins (3.3) and Blues (2.9) are each Top 5 scoring teams in the playoffs. For each, the third period has been their strongest and if you factor in ‘site’ — this game projects an average of 6.1 total goals.


IMHO, the best ‘value’ on the game might be Boston TT "Over" 2.5 at the small price of -116 but when you consider the Binnington factor, injuries and what’s at stake, the OV 5 at -140 is probably a safer play.


FURTHER ANALYSIS


St. Louis has posted an unprecedented run in the second half of the season and in the playoffs, ‘site’ really matters for these type of teams. When the line is tight and total is low, the "Over" is 30-19-23 (61% OV with a bunch of pushes).


The problem in this series is that STL is playing their 107th game of the season. After 100 games, totals take a sharp downturn to 2-5 O/U.


The home team is 1-6 SU and road teams carry a lopsided 3.3-1.6 scoring advantage, skewed by a couple of high scoring games by the Sharks (2016) and Bruins earlier in this series.


Once again, I arrive at the conclusion that the BOS TT OV 2.5 is the strongest value play on this game. If it loses, the Blues will likely win the Cup tonight and I can cash that series bet. If it wins, there is still a chance Blues win series either tonight or in Game 7.


Play is on BOS TT OV 2.5 at -116


GLTA
 

jughead

Active member
Thanks guys. Some great shots by Boston to get that one over and now we’ve got a Game 7 to look forward to! Think I heard Jim Hughson say it’s the first Cup Final 7 since the B’s beat Vancouver in 2011. Go Blues!
 
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