Thursday's Plays....

dogface

New member
Guys-

Thanks for the posts yesterday. Helps with the curiosity!

Not much to say but the plays did not go totally our way. Twins had bases loaded twice comae away with nothing, AZ loses on bases loaded beaning...Oakland comes out of nowhere to help a little. Such is baseball!

Yesterday: 3-7 (-2.7)
All-time Record: 246 - 199 - 5 (+46.5 Units)

Today's Plays:

SAN FRANCISCO -150, Rating: 2 units

NY METS -190, Rating: 3 units

COLORADO -220, Rating: 4 units

SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND =>
Selection: Over 9.5, Rating: 2 units

CLEVELAND -160, Rating: 5 units

CHI WHITE SOX vs. BALTIMORE =>
Selection: Over 8.5, Rating: 3 units

Good Luck...

dogface
 

steelbag

New member
GL dog... hope those big Faves come through for you... I like most of them but have rolled a few together into a small parlay... ugghhh -- 'p' word!
 

ReaDyMon

Active member
Hey dog, I'm with you today on San Francisco and will probably chase the Mets later.

Best of luck today mon!

Cheers, ReaDyMon


[This message has been edited by ReaDyMon (edited 06-21-2001).]
 

dogface

New member
Steelbag-

Can't help it, I love faves and the typically do well for me. People tend to argue I bet with the public, well the public is doing well!

Good luck on your selections, and hit some of those PPPPPParlays!

Readymon- Let's get them tongight. C'mon Bonds!


dogface
 

garsal

New member
I'm glad you like Cleveland tonite as a "5"
I'm whitch ya!..good luck on all your selections this evening...
 

cover

Active member
Dogface -- This post is not to offend you or anyone else, just wanted to point out what i think is questionable gambling. Shall Colorado not come back to win for you tonite, you will finish your bets 3 wins and 3 losses. Not to bad under normal circumstances for most players, 3-3, breakeven, no worries. But with the juice you laid tonite, you will go 3-3 for -8.5 units. You are losing 8.5 units and u won as many games as u lost. That is the problem with betting favorites like that. In the long run, it's very, very hard to win like that. Iam not a baseball player, but it's the same thing with hockey, the same concept. You now need to win 8 more bets than u lose just to make up for going 3-3 tonite. Do u know how stupid that sounds. Iam not here to bash anyone, just trying to point out that betting high favorites like that in the long run can lead to disaster. Tonite was a perfect example, so thought i'd point it out. There are ways to get around betting high favorites like that(ie run line, parlays like Steelbag did without leaving yourself open to that much risk). I hope no offence is taken to my post, just trying to help. Good luck in the future.
 

econostud

New member
Yeah Dogface,

Cover has made a great point here. I always try to keep my average take price as low as possible in order to keep my break-even pretty low too. The more large favs you bet, the higher your avg take price which translates into a higher break-even point. There is a reason why the books have such heavy favs. Looks at the dif between the fav price on Colorado's Hampton tonight (-210) and the underdog pitcher against Colorado tonight, Arizona's Bierbrandt (+170). If the dog somehow wins this game, the books will gladly pay the dog bettors there +170 in order to receive -210 from bettor who had Colorado. They make +40 in vig if their books are balanced.
Generally there is very little value in the lines or incentive to make a play on a heavy fav. The oddsmakers are making them very high favs to punish any bettor who wants to make a play on them.

Hey Cover, I do not think your post was in anyway hurtful. This is the reason why we have this forum in the first place, to receive insight from other bettors on the forum. If we cannot make suggestions to each other, then we should not even have this forum. Good job Cover
 

winnerpegger

Active member
Tough night Dogface. No worry, still +40 or so units is nothing to sneeze at!!


Thanks for not being a stranger cover! I don't want to turn this into a hockeypost, but if you have any thoughts on this weekends draft, post up!!

Sounds like Lindros going to the Leafs is dead ... but I think they've now had fourteen press conferences since last October to announce that!!
 

dogface

New member
Cover-

No offense is taken. However, I must tell you that my philosophy is just different than yours. I understand the favs/dogs betting stance that you outlined. I just don't buy into it 100%. I have accumulated a 55.28% winning percentage and + 46.5 units over the season using my strategy.

In your post you mentioned I would have to make 8 bets to break even, from last nights debacle. That isn't quite true, I just have to win eight units, which I can make up in 2 bets. Very rarely do I make a a 1 unit plays, they typically fall into the 2-3 unit area, with maybe one or two 5 units plays.

I believe you made a great teaching point for the lurkers and individuals that may not have a long or prosperous betting history, but it is still just a difference in opinion.

I will outline my point about faves in the future with time permitting.

Good luck on your plays, and no offense was taken!


dogface
 
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