Wednesday MLB card

Sonny Palermo

New member
OK, first up, we have action with Ginger.
Problem is it's on NYY.
Ginger is at 13-4, +6.6.
At today's game's price of -320 we'd have to risk the profit from three previous wins, to bank one unit.
I'm not doing it, and I'm not recommending it.

But, what to do about record keeping?
To keep it pure we would have to count it, but, profiles are ever-evolving, always adding new parameters to decrease losses and increase profitability.
One of the paramaters/qualifiers for this could be that "anything over -220 is a run line play."
I'd put an asterisk next to games on the chart that were of this type.

Don't know if I like that.
Know I don't like -320 though, or charting stuff I know I would never play or share as a recommendation.
Any thoughts?

I'm off to cap the rest of the card, see what else we might have a play on.
Back later . . .
 
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this one is climbing and climbing like that price is right game with the hiker going up the mountain.....at -305 now

i'll wait for your capping on the rest of todays card to see if that could be a "rum line" (hahah rags) play
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
OK, we got a Veronica and I'm on her, Cin/LAD Ov 8 -120.
A comfortable fit on 5 parameters, a little tight on season ERA,
an additional .17 or > would be optimal, but it does fit.

Carpenter/Oswalt just misses as a Betty, would be a play on the Under but they played an Over in their last game. Of the 5 qualifiers for this profile that parameter is the one I rate as the least important, but it's not a fit so I'm not on it. Just an FYI in case anyone is looking for action there.

Bos/Tex also just misses as a Betty, becauseBucholz only has 1 start, needs 5 to qualify.
There have been three other recent spots similar to this, with the kid the Jays pitched Saturday in 2 of them, and at least 2 went Under. Don't recall the third spot. Again, just an FYI in case anyone is looking at this game.

Record for both plays are in the Saturday thread.

I'm not playing the Yankee game and not charting it; instead, I am adding a price range parameter.
For comparison, in the day-night spot some players add "only if the total is between 8' and 10" and only play games within those parameters to maintain higher profitablity.
It makes no sense to chart a profile for plays I would not make, like a -300 fav, and it's extra work.
I'd rather go to the chart, and add to the defining parameters.

*NOTE - Of all the profiles I play, only Betty and Veronica are listed; all others are not pitcher-based.

UPDATE/edit: went to the chart to see what was the highest price used thus far; will use it is a cut off. Found two things - for each win I added 1 unit, thinking that as they were home teams on winning streaks we'd have all favs. Wrong. We had two dogs, Sea on 4/15 and SD on 5/21, so adding .39 to the unit total overall, for those two dogs. Also, the highest price used was NYY on 6/30, -240 (What was I thinking? Got me.) So, for uniformity, we will use that as the cut off price.
The added parameter is "-240 or less."
 
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Ice Cold

Well-known member
Don't like the higher prices either but no bookie would keep me off of something that i like that's my opinion.Gonna keep better records in Golf next year as the juice would be killing me will have golf picks up very late in the night or early in the morning either way you look at it gonna try and make up my baseball picks tonight from today wow 16 to 1 hope someone waved a white flag.
 

Garraund

Well-known member
You could keep a separate footnote for the next couple of seasons of how those teams above that cutoff line performed and see if it's worth the extra juice in the long run. I'm not sure laying off something that fits your parameters (but rankles your base instincts as a handicapper) is the right thing to do. If anything, the extra juice seems to confirm what you're system is saying will happen. Perhaps make it a smaller wager whenever that happens, risk a unit to win a nice steak dinner. If you're wrong, you've lost a unit. If you're right, you get a good cut of beef.
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Mixed emotions on this one.
One one hand, unhappy, we had five frames to get 1 more run and a win, but couldn't.
On the other hand, this game smelled like an Under for most innings, and I am happy to get away with the push.

I'm going to say it - Dusty Baker is affirmative action at it's worst.
And MLB is the American public, trying to wash away their sins and centuries old guilt, saying "I'm not prejudiced. In fact, I'm hip - I voted for a black guy."
He's a fukin quota, a token to keep the wolves at bay.
In short -he's a fukin moron who has no business managing a little league team much less a pro ball club.
Show me ONE clip, of one instance, from any other game played this season where you have a manager, on the road, down 2-1, lead off double and . . . he has him steal third.

Every minor leaguer knows - you don't make the first out at third base.
And especially not down 2-1.
But not Dusty - he sends him, in the fifth inning, AND against a pitcher who's being clocked at 94 MPH.

Asshole.
Douchebag.
But that's just my opinion.
NOT.
It's all been said before.
Cut and past from elsewhere:
"Baker, an old-school baseball traditionalist, was scrutinized for the Cubs’ declining productivity. To sabermetricians, many of his methods were puzzling, such as his tendency to put players with a poor on-base percentage, such as Neifi Perez, Jose Macias, Corey Patterson, and Jerry Hairston Jr. at or near the top of his lineups. Baker rejected (and still rejects) the importance of on-base percentage, arguing that extra baserunners simply "clog up the bases" unless they can run well.
This flies in the face of statistically-oriented baseball strategy and has made Baker a frequent target among the sabermetric community. Additionally, many fans, commentators, and writers blamed his consistent tendency to overuse young pitchers for damaging the career of Kerry Wood and derailing the career of Mark Prior.
Baker was widely known as a "player's manager," attempting to mollify his athletes rather than focusing on team output above personal interests, and favoring his favorite players regardless of their statistical output.

In 2003, Baker was the subject of some controversy when he stated that "black and Hispanic players are better suited to playing in the sun and heat than white players."


He's better suited to being a supreme court nominee than a baseball manager . . .
 
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Sonny Palermo

New member
From ESPN, 2008:

"MLB received its first A-minus for race Tuesday from Richard Lapchick, director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sports.

Lapchick released the study on Jackie Robinson Day, the 61st anniversary of when Robinson broke the major league color barrier.

He suggested baseball commissioner Bud Selig pressure clubs more to consider minority candidates. He also said MLB should institute a rule that a woman be considered for all senior job openings, similar to the rule that minority candidates must be interviewed."


Yeah, I agree. And if my house is burning down, I don't want firemen coming to my home who actually passed a test on trivial matters, such as, I don't know - say, fighting fires. I want political-pawn, force-fed quota-fillers.

Side note - best clip:
The Missouri senator getting laughed at in the town hall meeting after trying to sell constituents on the health care plan being not only deficit neutral but profitable for them!
or,
Harry Alford boxing Senator "Boss Lady" Boxer's ears off.

Alford on Miller's radio show yesterday:
"I'm trying to discuss Cap and Trade and she wants to take me to Colored Town."
Classic!
"M'am" my ass. The General should have taken her down, just like Mr. Alford did . . .
 
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pacer

Active member
Are you saying you think Baker can't manage Sonny. :D I coach kids in curling (Cdn. past time) and learning basics goes a long ways to winning. Maybe Baker forgot what he learned as a player. I thought bb was a game of percentages.
 

Sonny Palermo

New member
Dusty says he doesn't believe in percentages
(an excuse, I think, cuz he just doesn't understand them.)

No counterpoint Cub fans, or Reds fans for the defense?

Just an FYI (I'm taking the night off) Maryann play on LAA tonight; an odd fit though as most plays (15 of the 16 W's and all 4 L's in 16-4) saw win #5 at home; LAA win #5 came on the road. Just an FYI.
 
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